I've had a chance to revisit the earlier model of photon transmission from
the E-Cat through various media and incorporate some new features.  Now
decay half-lives and detector efficiency are factored in.  Here is what I'm
seeing for 1cm of nickel:

Photons from a total of 7e+14 transitions per second, escaping through 1cm
of Nickel:

       transition                channel  escaping_photons
 6150ADb_detected_photons
0   58Ni(d,p)59Ni         bremsstrahlung         7.64e-258
2.96e-260
1   58Ni(d,p)59Ni      β-β+ annihilation          3.91e+01
1.52e-01
2   61Ni(d,p)62Ni         bremsstrahlung         2.65e-110
1.03e-112
3   64Ni(d,p)65Ni         bremsstrahlung          0.00e+00
0.00e+00
4   58Ni(p,ɣ)59Cu                  gamma          9.37e+10
3.64e+08
5   60Ni(p,ɣ)61Cu      β-β+ annihilation          4.30e+06
1.67e+04
6   60Ni(p,ɣ)61Cu                  gamma          5.63e+10
2.19e+08
7   61Ni(p,α)58Co  β- deexcitation gamma          9.16e+09
3.56e+07
8   61Ni(p,α)58Co      β-β+ annihilation          1.08e+04
4.21e+01
9   61Ni(p,ɣ)62Cu                  gamma          3.97e+09
1.54e+07
10  62Ni(p,ɣ)63Cu                  gamma          3.03e+10
1.18e+08
11  64Ni(p,ɣ)65Cu                  gamma          4.35e+09
1.69e+07
12      d(p,ɣ)3He                  gamma          2.39e+07
9.27e+04


What is interesting for this particular model (photon transmission through
1cm of nickel) is that reaction channels (0)-(3), which are the deuteron
capture reactions, are either not detected or barely detected (keep in mind
there was a layer of lead shielding the E-Cat at one point).  The model is
crude and is probably doing some things very wrong.  But as a
back-of-the-envelope calculation, I tentatively conclude the following:

   - Nickel deuteron capture reactions can potentially go undetected, even
   when 10^14 events are occurring (on the order of the number of 10 MeV
   fusion reactions that would be needed to account for 700 W excess power).
   - A model that attempts to stop gammas in flight somehow is in for
   difficulties (as we already knew), for they will readily pass through
   almost any metal wall or shielding that we've heard about in connection
   with the E-Cat.  Something is making the gammas go away.  This may or may
   not mean that channels 4-12 are being suppressed; if they are not being
   suppressed, an explanation for the near-100 percent efficient fractionation
   of the energy will be needed.
   - Reaction channel (1) will be a headache to deal with if it is
   occurring.  (This arises from a beta+ decay with a long half life.)

The "escaping_photons" column provides the number of photons that pass
through 1cm of nickel in 1 second.  The "6150ADb_detected_photons" are the
number of photons that are picked up by a ~ 10cm diameter 6150AD-b
scintillation detector held 20cm away from the reactor, as described in the
Penon report [1, 2].

The code that was used to generate this and other models is available here:

https://github.com/emwalker/lenrmc

Other tables are here [3].  Bob (Higgins), I haven't yet incorporated the
2N reactions, but it would be nice to incorporate them somehow.

Eric


[1]
http://pesn.com/2012/09/09/9602178_Rossi_Reports_Third-Party_Test_Results_from_Hot_Cat/105322688-Penon4-1.pdf
[2] http://www.automess.de/Download/Prospekt_ADb_E.pdf
[3]
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzKtdce19-wyYUFNaS1vZktyYVU/edit?usp=sharing

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