Based on recent experience, I don't think the published infection
rates are anywhere close to accurate. Why do I say that? My 10 yo.
daughter came down with something yesterday morning. She came in
our bedroom coughing, wheezing and short of breath. She had a
low-grade fever around 100. We have several kids with asthma, so we
gave her a breathing treatment using a nebulizer with albuterol
sulfate. Then we called our local clinic to see if we could get her
into a doctor. After telling the attendant about the situation,
instead of making an appointment, she referred us to a Utah state
COVID-19 hotline. We called that hotline, and repeated the
symptoms. That person told us that due because test kits are in
short supply, unless there is severe illness, they are telling
everyone who calls to simply self-quarantine, and call back if
things get worse.
How can you rely on any infection statistics if they're only
sampling those that are severely affected? It's obvious to me that
the published statistics don't represent the number of people
infected. Rather, they represent the number of severely ill people
who are infected. Those with mild illness are not being included in
the data. At least in Utah.
Craig
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 8:34 AM Steve Jones
<thatoneguyst...@gmail.com <mailto:thatoneguyst...@gmail.com>> wrote:
So far population infection rates haven't hit more than 1
percent anywhere have they
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:07 AM Kurt Fankhauser
<lists.wavel...@gmail.com <mailto:lists.wavel...@gmail.com>> wrote:
I'm on the county health board here, they are
extremely worried about what is to come. They say the "peak"
and "flattening" isn't expected till Mid May. They have not
released that to the public yet because they don't want to
create panic but sounds like this lockdown could be a new
way of life for at least a few months. They are also talking
about the possibility of refrigerated semi trailers for the
dead bodies if they get that many. Our county population is
over 40,000 and between the two hospitals here they have
only 8 ventilators. If just one half of 1 percent of the
population here needs critical care that is over 200 people.
The two hospitals here are only setup for a couple dozen ICU
beds each. Traditionally trauma patients that come in here
are forwarded to one of the bigger cities which will not be
an option due to overstretched resources in the bigger
cities and them having even bigger problems than us.
Consider that some of the data suggests 10-20% of the
infected will need hospitalized you start to grasp the real
threat to the healthcare system. Trump knows all this, he
was probably briefed with the numbers over a month ago. He
would not be tanking the economy right now if this wasn't a
real threat of happening. If it wasn't for the travel ban we
would probably be right there with Italy as we speak...
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 12:21 AM Mathew Howard
<mhoward...@gmail.com <mailto:mhoward...@gmail.com>> wrote:
It's especially bad when revolting people revolt...
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:01 PM Jason McKemie
<j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com
<mailto:j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>> wrote:
People are revolting, but they will start to revolt...
On Thursday, March 19, 2020, James Howard
<ja...@litewire.net <mailto:ja...@litewire.net>> wrote:
are you saying that you're not revolting now?
Makes me think of the 3 Stooges line "I
resemble that remark"......
Oh wait. Did you mean that people will start to
revolt? Hmmm.... I thought you meant people
were going to be revolting and most people
already are.....
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com
<mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com>> on behalf of
Jason McKemie <j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com
<mailto:j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>>
*Sent:* Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
*To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
Yeah, you can't have businesses closed past then
or you're going to have people revolting (myself
included).
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince
<part15...@gmail.com
<mailto:part15...@gmail.com>> wrote:
The isolation can not last more than a few
weeks, or maybe a month - month and a half.
At that point, we should have reduced the
number of walking infections without
symptoms, and maybe have the ability to
actually test for it. After that, it's a
crap shoot.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:
With "flatten the curve" as your primary
tool expected to take years and people only
able to half pay attention for a few weeks,
we'll have to find something else.
-----
Mike Hammett
Intelligent Computing Solutions
<http://www.ics-il.com/>
<https://www.facebook.com/ICSIL><https://plus.google.com/+IntelligentComputingSolutionsDeKalb><https://www.linkedin.com/company/intelligent-computing-solutions><https://twitter.com/ICSIL>
Midwest Internet Exchange
<http://www.midwest-ix.com/>
<https://www.facebook.com/mdwestix><https://www.linkedin.com/company/midwest-internet-exchange><https://twitter.com/mdwestix>
The Brothers WISP
<http://www.thebrotherswisp.com/>
<https://www.facebook.com/thebrotherswisp>
<https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXSdfxQv7SpoRQYNyLwntZg>
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From: *"Bill Prince" <part15...@gmail.com>
<mailto:part15...@gmail.com>
*To: *af@af.afmug.com <mailto:af@af.afmug.com>
*Sent: *Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM
*Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be
short term isolation to try and flatten the
curve. With that, all the infected people
not having symptoms will become immune (to
some extent) and no longer be contagious. I
don't think we can keep people bottled up
for more than a few weeks.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 3/19/2020 12:49 PM, Adam Moffett wrote:
Has anybody laid out what the long term
plan is?
We can't keep everybody at home forever
and we can't stop all international
trade and travel so sooner or later the
virus has to run it's course, or so it
seems to me.
I know we're trying to slow down the
spread so we don't overwhelm the
hospital capacity and that's great.
Are we going to somehow reduce social
isolation over time in a controlled
way, or will social isolation end
organically as people get sick of
staying home?
On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
I dont know how many times i need
to point out this logic
The US is undercounted, thats a
given. undercounting does not
equate hidden numbers of magnitude
Heres the logic thats completely
being ignored
The deaths associated with COVID19
that werent tested would have been
attributed to flu
There has been no reported increase
in flu deaths per the anticipated
rates this year
The testing that has been done is
very promising. Yesterdays counts
of those tested were running around
8 percent positive. This does NOT
equate to 8 percent of the
population. The "administration
bad, nobody can just go get a test
for curiousity" argument further
strengthens this as a promising
number. The ONLY people being
tested for the most part, are those
in the very high probability
category. So of those assumed to be
infected, only 8 percent of them
actually are.
We still havent hit globally the
number of infections and deaths
from the swine flu in the US alone.
let me reiterate this GLOBALLY
TODAY, there are less sick and
dead, than from swine flu in the US
ALONE. The current response is such
that has never been seen in the
history of the planet.
Inmates are an issue, with a guard
and an inmate at rikers island
infected now, we have a national
issue. if we dump the prisons, not
only do we have a ton of criminals
on the street, we have hundreds of
thousands of indigent on the
streets in the middle of a
pandemic. (maybe not having locked
up such a percentage of the
population in the first place is a
whole other OT rant). Iran dumped
70k inmates on the streets, i cant
imagine that having helped their
situation.
Morons on spring break making a
point of interacting even more than
they normally would have is
illogical enough to eliminate any
logic.
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:00 PM
Mathew Howard <mhoward...@gmail.com
<mailto:mhoward...@gmail.com>> wrote:
I don't know that Russia's
numbers are terribly
inaccurate... it's really just
starting to spread there now,
and the numbers aren't far off
what other countries reported
early on, and the cases they
have reported are almost all in
Moscow. They also have much
tighter border controls than
most of the world, and they're
going on lockdown earlier into
the outbreak than most
countries did... so it's not
unbelievable that they'd have
low numbers at this point.
But who knows what's really
going on in some of these
countries... it certainly
wouldn't surprise me if China
is lying about their numbers,
it all depends on what they
think is in their best
interests at this point, and I
don't trust any information
from or about North Korea, no
matter what the source is, but
the high level of government
control over everything in
North Korea could certainly
give them an advantage in this
situation.
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:42 PM
Bill Prince
<part15...@gmail.com
<mailto:part15...@gmail.com>>
wrote:
North Korea, Iraq, Iran,
Russia, India, Mexico. I
heard something on NPR this
morning about mass graves
in Iran. It may be years
(or never) before we
understand the scope of this.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 3/19/2020 11:37 AM,
ch...@wbmfg.com
<mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com> wrote:
I still believe North
Korea has a huge
problem that they are
covering up. Especially
in the labor camps.
Communal sleeping barns
etc. No sanitation
facilities.
*From:* Bill Prince
*Sent:* Thursday, March
19, 2020 12:34 PM
*To:* af@af.afmug.com
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG]
OT: virus anomalies
Only if they attribute
it properly. There is
plenty of data to
indicate that deaths
have been incorrectly
attributed,
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
On 3/19/2020 11:09 AM,
James Howard wrote:
the death count is
the death count
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