If we're starting a betting pool, put my money on "lithium battery failure, short, bomb, or other event which caused a severe and quick fire in the avionics bay, destroying enough avionics to create an uncontrollable aircraft".
Or maybe stated differently: If there was a bomb, the primary explosion didn't bring down the craft, the secondary effect of fire did. And to clarify the uncontrollable aircraft portion: I mean, it caused the A320 to, at a minimum, switch into some flight mode which was outside what the pilots were expecting, or operate outside of normal parameters, or at worst was not controllable at all. Examples of something similar happening in Airbus planes: Airasia Flight 8501 (A320), XL Airways 888T (A320), Lufthansa Flight 1829 (A321), Air france 447 (A330). There are some other similar scenarios, I'd guess are likely, but I'd probably exclude things like decompression, wing torn off, fuselage cracking open, etc - except as secondary effects once the aircraft moved outside it's designed flight envelope. The ACARS messages were simply too specific about "fire, fire, more fire, instrument failure". On Sat, May 21, 2016 at 5:09 PM, Bill Prince <[email protected]> wrote: > Seems that a smaller bomb would have caused decompression. Assuming that > would have been among the things reported (especially if its reporting > smoke in a lavatory), then my thinking is moving toward some Lion batteries > in a cargo hold or something like that. > > > bp > <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> > > > On 5/21/2016 2:46 PM, Chuck McCown wrote: > > 3:12 a.m., the plane passed over the Greek island of Kasos > > 3:26 a.m. Midway between Greece and Egypt, a sensor detected smoke in a > lavatory and a fault in two of the plane's cockpit windows.� > > 3:27 a.m.� a sensor detected that smoke had reached the aircraft's > avionics, > > 3:29 a.m.� the plane's autopilot and wing control systems alarmed > suggesting serious structural problems. > > 3:30 a.m.� the plane fell off the radar > > � > > �So, about 4 minutes of catastrophe.� Not a big bomb for sure.� A > smaller bomb that blew out windows, or made a hole in the aircraft and > started a fire.� > > > -- *Forrest Christian* *CEO**, PacketFlux Technologies, Inc.* Tel: 406-449-3345 | Address: 3577 Countryside Road, Helena, MT 59602 [email protected] | http://www.packetflux.com <http://www.linkedin.com/in/fwchristian> <http://facebook.com/packetflux> <http://twitter.com/@packetflux>
