I dunno, the Motorola test room in their canopy lab had hundreds of radios in 
it.  

From: Kurt Fankhauser 
Sent: Saturday, August 26, 2017 12:31 PM
To: [email protected] 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Manufacturer MTBF ratings and actual lifespan of product

So does anyone actually think that a radio manufacturer took 100 radios off the 
shelf and tested them simultaneous to calculate out some average and derive at 
the number they state? I highly doubt that many radios were tested especially 
considering the cost of some of these radios!!!

On Sat, Aug 26, 2017 at 2:03 PM, Forrest Christian (List Account) 
<[email protected]> wrote:

  Need to correct my example: 

  10 devices fail in the first year.  10% per year.   50% would be at 5 years.  
 So the MTBF is 5 years.   Adam's explanation is likely also accurate.

  On Sat, Aug 26, 2017 at 12:01 PM, Forrest Christian (List Account) 
<[email protected]> wrote:

    My understanding is that MTBF is usually calculated by taking a certain 
sample size, then seeing how many fail over a certain amount of time.   From 
this number you can then use statistics to determine how many years the rest 
will last. 

    A simplified example would be if you take 100 devices, and 10 fail in the 
first year, then you assume that 5 would fail per year, and the mtbf would be 5 
years.

    Remember 'M' is mean.  Or average.   Which roughly means that only half of 
the units will still be working in that amount of time.  It doesn't mean your 
particular radio will last that long, just that half of the radios will last 
that long.  Yours might fail in 10 days or a year or never....

    Personally, I believe that this method is rather dubious since some 
electronic parts exhibit wear-out.   Electrolytic capacitors as an example.   
Even if very few devices fail at 5 years, there is a good chance that most will 
fail at 20 years after the electrolytic caps have dried out.

    On Sat, Aug 26, 2017 at 9:29 AM, Kurt Fankhauser <[email protected]> 
wrote:

      Where do these MTBF ratings come from by radio manufacturers? Are they 
just made up numbers the manufacturer "hopes" that the product can achieve or 
is actual testing done to get to these numbers? I thought i seen a radio once 
with a 90 year MTBF rating. How they hell can they determine that? The 
components in the radio didn't even exist 90 years ago. 

      If a radio manufacture states in the spec sheets that the radio has a 40 
year MTBF rating but then also admits that after 4 years expect to have 
problems due to a design flaw, what does that mean? Is the expected MTBF rating 
only good in a "lab environment" under "ideal conditions"?

      Seems to me the MTBF is just marketing fluff and actually doesn't mean 
crap....




    -- 

          Forrest Christian CEO, PacketFlux Technologies, Inc.

          Tel: 406-449-3345 | Address: 3577 Countryside Road, Helena, MT 59602
          [email protected] | http://www.packetflux.com

             







  -- 

        Forrest Christian CEO, PacketFlux Technologies, Inc.

        Tel: 406-449-3345 | Address: 3577 Countryside Road, Helena, MT 59602
        [email protected] | http://www.packetflux.com

           



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