On Sun, Aug 6, 2023 at 9:13 PM Matt Mahoney <[email protected]> wrote:

> ...
> A few years ago I researched homicide rates and gun ownership rates by
> country and was surprised to find a weak but negative correlation. But that
> doesn't tell us why. Does arming everyone deter crime, or does crime result
> in stricter gun laws? The data doesn't say. You can use either data point
> to predict the other and get the same compression.
>

For this kind of extremely limited causal analysis between just two
variables, you might make progress with BMLiNGAM
<https://taku-y.github.io/bmlingam/>, which is a package I used to create
such paired causal inferences as a first step toward doing trivial path
analysis on a bunch of data.  But, really, the proper approach is to go
multivariate out of the gate.

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