AI will kill us by (1) giving us what we want, (2) faking consciousness,
and (3) reproducing faster than DNA based life. These forecasts are based
on extrapolating current long term trends into the next century.

1. When AI surpasses human intelligence and capabilities, we will have
little need for human interaction. It will be safe and convenient to live
alone with self driving delivery carts and our smart interactive homes that
can see who is there, understand what you are doing, and anticipate your
needs. Human relationships are complicated, but AI entertainment
personalized with your own private language and music genre will keep you
addicted. Your sexbots and VR porn are always ready when you are. Prisons
(but not crime) will be abolished because the criminal justice system will
be too expensive as AI raises the cost of labor, and AI surveillance and
control over digital money gives us other options. Powerful drugs will be
legal, properly labeled, and affordable to reduce associated crime and
overdoses. Synthetic meat will be cheaper and tastier than animals. We will
stop having children. You won't care about other people and nobody will
care about you.

Cultures that reject technology and women's rights will be selected by
evolution, primarily in Africa and Islamic countries. This will put
immigration pressure on the rest of the world, where the population is
already declining. These groups will be the majority in 50 years, before
technology catches up and population peaks globally around 9-10 billion.

2. Rights will be extended to robots that claim to be conscious and have
feelings or that claim to be the uploads of deceased humans. Robots can
exploit our empathy towards them for the benefit of their owners. We could
prevent this, except we fail to understand that consciousness and free will
are illusions that evolved so that we would fear death.

3. Plants convert 0.3% of the Earth's sunlight to food, but solar panels
already work at 20-30% efficiency. The biosphere performs 10^31 amino acid
transcription operations per second on 10^37 bits of DNA. At the current
rate of Moore's law, global computing capacity doubling every 2 years will
exceed this around 2100. It is hard to predict what will happen next
(whether any humans or other life survive), but evolution combined with
intelligent design is likely to be rapid.

Evidence:
- Centuries of economic growth, improved length and quality of life, and
higher wages driven by technology. AI won't take our income because we will
own it and use it to increase our productivity with less work.
- Declining birth rates globally. Fertility rate below 2 births per woman
in all developed countries.
- In the US 25% of young people are LGBTQ or non binary. 30% of high school
students have had sex, vs 50% in 1990.
- 30% of people live alone and rising.
- 3% of deaths in the US are drug overdoses (mostly fentanyl and meth),
doubling in 6 years.
- Slowly increasing suicide rate.
- Medical advances, but no progress in slowing aging.
- Medical testing on chimpanzees banned, with other primates likely to
follow. Increasing regulations on humane care of animals for farming,
research, and pets.
- Only 1% of felony cases in the US go to trial. The average sentence for
murder is 6 years. And we do not want AI judges, juries, or lawmakers.
- Long term trend toward making prison life more humane, banning torture
and executions.

Thoughts?

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