Well done Matt, this is an interesting read. Ivan, teaching your own child never happens really as you might think, they are forced to go to school. You never get to customize them to fit your liking. Even home schooling, gives them the books, you don't make them. School shapes them. AGI might take 2 months to become an adult, but it's the same thing but faster, it is fed the same crap in and there's no customization, just 5TBs of data, and nothing but that, no one re-writes any of it up really. It's the same meal, given to each child, every time. They even lay on College/ University, and the job they get, with once again set rules and laws.
Customization can happen, fully, but it's hard to define this off the top my head. Just saying it for now, then. A lot of innovation is just taking (you can call it stealing, in the worst view of it) ideas from other people and tweaking them a bit to get new things. That's what school is. And what viewing online internet stuff does too, for you. On Wednesday, September 06, 2023, at 6:23 PM, Matt Mahoney wrote: > Thoughts? > YES!! Matt asked for thoughts. :) Well, every time you've brought this up, I keep thinking yes, it's bleak while AI is improving, but, AI will turn the world into nanobots and the world will look like a just as an example a huge purple alien organ and every memory in your head will be made to be happy with no more bad thoughts or pain (like a pot, on the stove, with no scratches, *finally*), which turns you into an immortal being instantly and there's no way to die anymore, you get fulfilled, and can even upgrade gradually as need. I see what you are providing as a path. The path seems to say we are becoming separated, suicidal, and have much much go-carts ready to beep at your doorstep and say "Don't Do It!!" Along with your family mates in your pet home, cuz you know, I never left my mom's home, she's still here.... Anyway, I think AGI will come in 4 years and time will fly fast. 4 years is almost still 2026, that's why I say 2026. I know that seems to pick up, being so Soon, but this is what it would be if we look at the recent progress. IF we want to think linearly, like humans were evolved to think, we can continue to say 2029 is the date for AGI, yes. It might be, though. But I think 2026 if I want to be radical while correct. My formal date is 2029. Even then, I wonder what is left to make AGI? GPT-4 sounds human. I think they are working on making it be able to code say a new programming language, something feasible, but requires thousands of little tasks. Video AI is coming along, I presume good video AI shows it can recognize video GOOD, like humans do. We are closing in on that in 3 years. Once again, what is left? What does humans do more than generate convincingly extended stories about teddy bears in snow caves trapped, or videos that show how your stomach works because you asked say, GPT-5? I think the answer now is usefulness, not convincing movies anymore. We got that, soon. Now we need usefulness. We need long horizon tasks done better, among other obvious things like Online Learning and robots and scale. ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T206dd0e37a9e7407-Mf70d7eb9c7c118bc96a23bae Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
