Let me explain what I mean by the intelligence or predictive power of
the universe. I mean that the universe computes everything in it, the
position of every atom over time. If I knew that, I could tell you
everything that will ever happen, like tomorrow's winning lottery
numbers or the exact time of death of every person who has ever lived
or ever will. I could tell you if there was life on other planets, and
if so, what it looks like and where to find it.

Of course that is impossible by Wolpert's theorem. The universe can't
know everything about itself and neither can anything in it. We don't
know the program that computes the universe because it would require
the entire computing power of the universe to test the program by
running it, about 10^120 or 2^400 steps. But we do have two useful
approximations. If we set the gravitational constant G = 0, then we
have quantum mechanics, a complex differential wave equation whose
solution is observers that see particles. Or if we set Planck's
constant h = 0, then we have general relativity, a tensor field
equation whose solution is observers that see space and time. Wolfram
and Yudkowsky both estimate this unknown program is only a few hundred
bits long, and I agree. It is roughly the complexity of quantum
mechanics and relativity taken together, and roughly the minimum size
by Occam's Razor of a multiverse where the n'th universe is run for n
steps until we observe one that necessarily contains intelligent life.

-- 
-- Matt Mahoney, mattmahone...@gmail.com

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Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI
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