Mike's response to me in the thread, "Image schemas control all forms of action [Lakoff replies]" demonstrates what is wrong with the "prediction" method of confirmation of a theory about the world. Mike acts as if he believes that since no one has a demonstration of an AGI program that this proves that a computer program (an algorithm as he calls it) is unable to deal effectively with new situations. Most of believe that this conclusion is completely wrong. At the very least his unanswered challenge does not in any way confirm his theory.
Now he might associate his prediction with a more constrained theory, like he predicts that no one in this group has an actual working AGI program and the lack of a taker for his challenge to produce one verifies it. Ok, but again the fact that no one is willing to accept his challenge does not actually verify that. There could be someone who has a working AGI program. But even if we take it as verifying evidence, there is still no way that an automated program, which had to rely on prediction as a method to confirm its theories can actually verify that the predicted event truly happened and it truly verified its theory. So even with a more constrained theory, in order to use prediction as a method to confirm a theory you first have to find a way to verify that the theory and the prediction were well constructed, the theory and the prediction were both uniquely interdependent and the observation by which the prediction was "confirmed" was also uniquely correct. In other words, if we had an AGI program that was able to think then we might use the prediction method just as a human being might use it. Or misuse it. This shows that the verification through prediction is a faulty a concept as logic or any of the other would-be verification methods. Jim Bromer ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-c97d2393 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-2484a968 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
