Ben, This is an EXCELLENT article on the way to a laudable goal that I suspect you haven't yet seen, and I hadn't seen until I read your article. Consider...
If you consider everyone's "positions" on AGI, they fundamentally differ on various quantitative grounds rather than qualitative grounds, e.g. the difference between a hard takeoff and a semi-hard takeoff. Even my arguments that lots more wet science is needed is quantitative, centering around the meaning of "lots" above, which some would even argue is zero. I believe that new research technologies are needed to learn enough to build an AGI, but that is just pushing out the "quantitative" scale a bit further than others have previously pushed it. It would be REALLY interesting to see your article adjusted and expanded to include ALL positions as differing only in quantitative ways, with you taking your own position, probably somewhere near the middle, as to what you think the quantitative measures will eventually prove to be. This would/could/should result in a MAJOR contraction of AGI discussions, as people would then argue the quantitative measures, rather than their impact on the result. Whenever someone points out something that doesn't cleanly fit into your quantitative article, or points out something that adjusts your opinion as to how a singularity is likely to unfold, simply edit your article to include the new concept. Also, if your article proves good enough to become widely accepted, I suspect that it would greatly improve the funding situation for anyone who claims to have an edge on one of the quantitative measures. One passing comment regarding your specific scenario, compare Brazil's nuclear program with Iran's nuclear program. Their situations are nearly identical - neither has signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, both claim to be developing for peaceful purposes, both have a lot of nuclear material, and by all accounts neither is weaponizing. However, no one is talking about sanctions against Brazil. I suspect the same forces that have now arrayed against Iran would also array against Azerbaijan in your scenario. Thanks again for your excellent article. Steve ==================== On Thu, Sep 25, 2014 at 12:07 AM, Ben Goertzel via AGI <[email protected]> wrote: > > ... based on recent discussions on the AGI email list... > > http://multiverseaccordingtoben.blogspot.hk/2014/09/semi-hard-takeoff.html > > -- Ben > > > -- > Ben Goertzel, PhD > http://goertzel.org > > "In an insane world, the sane man must appear to be insane". -- Capt. > James T. Kirk > > "Emancipate yourself from mental slavery / None but ourselves can free our > minds" -- Robert Nesta Marley > *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> > <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/10443978-6f4c28ac> | > Modify > <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> > Your Subscription <http://www.listbox.com> > -- Full employment can be had with the stoke of a pen. Simply institute a six hour workday. That will easily create enough new jobs to bring back full employment. ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
