On Sat, Sep 27, 2014 at 2:39 PM, Tim Tyler via AGI <[email protected]> wrote:
> Of course in real-world evolution, there are other ways of
> getting useful information into the genome. You can choose
> sexual partners from a pool of prospective mates. Or you can
> kill 99% of the population and breed from the remaining 1%.
> Or, you can insert information directly into the genome,
> using genetic engineering.

Good point. Considering epigenetic transfer, writing the software
equivalent to our DNA would be more expensive. However, this
additional knowledge cannot contribute to reproductive fitness. The
actual limit is log n bits per generation, where n is the number of
offspring in a steady state population.

> There's no known speed limit on evolution.

Yes there is. Copying one bit of information in any form including DNA
requires at least kT ln 2 energy, or about 3 x 10^-21 J at room
temperature. Growth and maintenance also require energy. Your body
performs 10^25 DNA base copy operations, 10^28 RNA and amino acid
operations, and 10^26 synapse operations in your lifetime, subject to
the same energy requirements. The speed of evolution is limited by the
3.8 x 10^26 W of energy from the sun, of which only 10^-9 reaches the
Earth, and only 1% of that is converted to chemical energy by
photosynthesis.

> The faster we
> can copy, and the larger the size of the populations
> involved, the faster evolution can progress. There
> are thought to be limits on copying speed (associated
> with the Bekenstein Bound) - though these seem far off.

The Bekenstein bound limits entropy within a region of space. It is 4
nats (4/ln 2 bits) per Planck area of the enclosing boundary. The
limit is reached only for a black hole. For the Hubble radius, it is
2.95 x 10^122 bits. If you believe Moore's Law, that's 500 years away.
Of course we will run into speed of light delays first as we try to
collect computing resources from outside our solar system.

> However, we don't know of a limit on population size.

A Dyson sphere would collect enough energy to support 10^24 humans at
100 watts each assuming 30% collection efficiency. This population
would have a mass close to that of the Earth, and therefore would
require mining the outer planets for nutrients.

-- 
-- Matt Mahoney, [email protected]


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