On 09/26/2014 01:39 PM, Matt Mahoney via AGI wrote:
On Fri, Sep 26, 2014 at 2:32 PM, Stanley Nilsen via AGI <[email protected]>
wrote:
4. probabilities
Matt states a fairly simple equation (utility * probability < cost) that
he calls the answer. I'm not sure it's as simple as indicated - in fact I'm
sure it is not.
It is not simple because estimating probabilities is not simple.
... <explanation removed> ....
Yes, I see the complexity and room for error in simple probability.
Thanks for insight into how the numbers are tweaked - or, better tweaked
for the compression field. Also noted that you mention experimentation
as an "often" used technique to find values.
Utility and Cost also contribute complexity to the simple equation...
Consider complexity of measuring utility - is the benefit really as good
as we think it might be? And, what we consider pretty low utility might
turn out to have side benefits we didn't imagine. This is one of the
"hard" problems of intelligence - estimating worth.
Cost can be difficult to estimate in the real world. For example, if we
use up materials in our venture, they are not available for a different
venture. What is the cost of a "loss" of other opportunity? How can we
accurately tell if what we did was really more valuable than what we
didn't? There would be many assumptions in such guess-ta-mating.
Material costs seem to be easy to estimate because there is a dollar
value on them. But, the cost can go up when we have trouble in
locating, shipping, handling, quality etc. Demand may change
availability - as might changes in the market. A small and trivial
thing could tie up a production process.
Time is a resource we often spend without a clue of it's true value.
Should we spend time figuring out how we might spend our time for
greater benefit? Or is my time today too valuable for that?
You get the picture. We do the best we can. The equation sounds
simple, but it is hard to "master." At best, we improve over time; at
worst, we operate on delusions and are certain it would be great "if we
could just force a few things to change..."
Did someone mention frustration?
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