On 10/24/14, Matt Mahoney via AGI <[email protected]> wrote:
> On Fri, Oct 24, 2014 at 2:44 PM, Steve Richfield via AGI
> <[email protected]> wrote:
>> Perhaps errant POV is the REAL barrier to AGI?
>
> The real barrier is that AGI requires a lot of computing power, a lot
> of software, and a lot of human knowledge that hasn't been written
> down yet. The POV error is not realizing just how much it will cost.
> Most people working in their basement for 10 or 80 hours per week or
> whatever probably never even attempted to budget it. I mean, how would
> you?
>


Well, even if AGI is impossible with present hardware, working 10
hours a week will not shed as much light as working at least 40 hours
a week in earnest.  There is no substitute for a plan:  time + place +
task.  It is one thing to have great ideas about AGI.  Everybody on
this list who contributes has great ideas.  The problem is translating
the ideas into something that does something, as Jim said above.  It
doesn't mean hard work will make any progress, but there will be no
progress without hard work.

One other subtle thing in the "oddball lone wolf in his basement"
stereotype is the notion that AGI has a solution.  Like there is a
single absolute answer to AGI and it is solved.  That ignores the
important issue of JUDGEMENT.  What is the correct value of Alibaba
stock?  Nobody knows.  It's judgement.  One AGI will always be
different than another in the area of judgement, in the same way that
humans are.  If there is no fixed judgement, then, there is no
"answer" or "solution" to AGI, only variations.  I think a lot of the
progress in deep learning falls under the UNDERSTANDING side of AGI.
But, it takes both understanding and judgement together, IMO, although
this is not a clean line of demarcation.

Mike A




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> -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected]
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