On Wed, Oct 29, 2014 at 5:50 AM, Tim Tyler via AGI <[email protected]> wrote: > Really? You think machine progress will slow down once humans have been > replaced be their artificial offspring?
Yes, but we are not there yet. The biosphere computes 10^33 DNA, RNA, and amino acid operations per second on 10^37 bits of DNA. Global computing capacity is currently about 10^20 OPS on 10^22 bits. It will take about 75 years to catch up at the current rate of Moore's Law (doubling every 1.5 years). After that, progress will slow down because of the limits of physics. We can achieve perhaps 10^36 OPS with better chemistry, 10^46 OPS with a Dyson sphere at 1 AU and 10^48 at 10,000 AU. Ultimately the universe will support 10^120 operations but it will take billions of years to get there because of speed of light delays. > One bit per generation?!? I thought we already debunked that figure. > There is no such limit. One bit per generation with respect to knowing what improves reproductive fitness. I realize that information can be transmitted to offspring epigenetically and through language. That's not the same thing. We think of intelligence as magic. Once we create smarter than human AI (whatever that means), then so can it, only faster. We can't possibly know what a superhuman intelligence might be able to achieve. Therefore it could achieve anything. Stop thinking like that. First of all, we can't even agree on what intelligence means. Does it mean a score on an IQ test, or passing the Turing test, or expected utility measured in dollars per hour? Depending on your test, AI either surpassed humans decades ago or it is impossible by definition. That is why I measure knowledge and computing power instead. I think we can agree that more is better on all of the tests I mentioned. Knowledge and computing power only helps you with things that are computable. With regard to our transhuman aspirations, we have already passed the peak of progress. The rate of increase of life expectancy in developed countries peaked in the 1970's at about 0.2 years per year. It peaked in the1990's worldwide. It now costs $2 billion to develop a new drug, and this cost doubles every 9 years. Compared to treating diseases, we know very little about what drugs or medical treatments might slow down aging because it takes even longer to test them. For example, we don't know if calorie restriction extends human life. After decades we know that it works on monkeys in one study but not in another. So there's 2 more bits of life-or-death knowledge for you. You might think that advanced technology can speed up testing. But once you start thinking in terms of computation rather than magical intelligence, you'll realize otherwise. Simulating even simple chemistry requires solving Schrodinger's equation, which is exponential in the number of particles unless it is run on a quantum computer. This is why there are no programs that can input a chemical formula like "H2O" and output the properties of that chemical such as its melting point. I expect that we will develop better quantum computers, but remember that what you do to program a quantum computer is to build a physical system that obeys the same equations. It's not going to run significantly faster than doing a physical experiment like putting a thermometer in ice water. As I said, a Dyson sphere at 10,000 AU (1 light year circumference) could compute 10^48 OPS or 1 Earth evolution every 100 seconds. Surely then we could do the necessary experiments to overcome evolution's cruel but optimal design, where all living things are programmed to fear dying and then die. But think about what that means. During your lifetime your brain performs 10^25 synapse operations and your body performs 10^27 molecular operations. So your simulation is effectively creating and killing people at the rate of 10^21 per second. -- -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
