On Sun, Oct 26, 2014 at 6:06 PM, Tim Tyler via AGI <[email protected]> wrote: > Maybe this indicates irrational behaviour - but I think it is more > likely that software really is the problem.
As I said, software is one part of the problem. The other parts are hardware and knowledge collection. According to my cost estimate (which I think everyone has seen), software is the least expensive component of automating the labor force. At 300 million lines, it can be written for $30 billion. But if you are trying to just simulate a single human brain (or a robot, perhaps), it is the most expensive component. My estimate is based on the information content of the human genome. The interesting thing about this is that the human genome is not much bigger than that of an insect. Thus, the major distinction between "insect level intelligence" and "human level intelligence" is computing power. A lot of people think that there ought to be a really simple general learning algorithm. Perhaps it is a deep, hierarchical neural network or something like it that could be applied to vision, hearing, language, motor control, game playing, or whatever else you throw at it. First, Hutter proved that the optimal solution (AIXI) is not computable, and that approximations like AIXI^tl and Goedel machines have exponential time complexity. Second, Legg proved ( http://arxiv.org/abs/cs/0606070 ) that good predictors (how we normally measure intelligence) are necessarily complex. I don't expect that everyone will accept these proofs. After all, we still have people trying to recursively compress random data, build perpetual motions, and prove P = NP. But that doesn't mean we should give up on AGI. The payoff would be enormous. I do claim this is not something you are going to solve at home on your laptop. Big companies like Google and Facebook have the resources to solve this, and they are doing so. What Hutter and Legg essentially proved is that your brilliant insight is not going to beat hard work. -- -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
