> It is obvious that no one on this list agrees with me. This does not mean = > that I am obviously wrong. The division is very simple. > > My position: the doubling time has been reducing and will continue to do s= > o. > > Their position: the doubling time is constant.
It is incredibly unlikely that the doubling time is constant. But whatever the data show, as Ben says, it is impossible that the decrease in doubling time can continue ad infinitum. It will approach various asymptotic limits as defined by technology and market pressures (noone is going to spend billions in R&D to make computers that cost $.05) and eventually by the laws of physics themselves as we approach the atomic and quantum scales. We will not have $10, 20 ghz, computers in 3 years. > > This is not a question of philosophy but only of the data. What does the d= > ata show? If we had a stack of COMPUTER SHOPPER magazines for the past tw= > enty years the question could be decided in short order. The drop in doubl= > ing time starts out very slowly. That is why it is not obvious yet. By th= > e time it becomes obvious it will be too late. > > > Mike Deering. > www.SingularityActionGroup.com <---new website. > > ------- > To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your subscri= > ption,=20 > please go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/?[EMAIL PROTECTED] > > ------=_NextPart_000_0010_01C2D67C.E8727860 > Content-Type: text/html; > charset="iso-8859-1" > Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable > > <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> > <HTML><HEAD> > <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; charset=3Diso-8859-1"> > <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1126" name=3DGENERATOR> > <STYLE></STYLE> > </HEAD> > <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> > <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>It is obvious that no one on this list agrees with= > =20 > me. This does not mean that I am obviously wrong. The division = > is=20 > very simple.</FONT></DIV> > <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> > <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>My position: the doubling time has been reduc= > ing and=20 > will continue to do so.</FONT></DIV> > <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> > <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Their position: the doubling time is=20 > constant.</FONT></DIV> > <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> > <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This is not a question of philosophy but only of th= > e=20 > data. What does the data show? If we had a stack of COMPUTER=20 > SHOPPER magazines for the past twenty years the question could be dec= > ided=20 > in short order. The drop in doubling time starts out very slowly.&nbs= > p;=20 > That is why it is not obvious yet. By the time it becomes obvious it = > will=20 > be too late.</FONT></DIV> > <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> > <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> > <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Mike Deering.</FONT></DIV> > <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><A=20 > href=3D"http://www.SingularityActionGroup.com";>www.SingularityActionGroup.c= > om</A> =20 > <---new website.</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> > > ------=_NextPart_000_0010_01C2D67C.E8727860-- > > ------- To unsubscribe, change your address, or temporarily deactivate your subscription, please go to http://v2.listbox.com/member/?[EMAIL PROTECTED]
