> 
> Hi Ben,
> 
> Thanks for the brain teaser!  As a sometimes believer in Occam's Razor, I
> think it makes sense to assume that Xi and Xj are indepenent, unless we know
> otherwise.  This simplifies things, and is the "rational" thing to do (for
> some definition of rational ;->).  So why not construct a bayes net modeling
> the distributions, with causal links only where you _know_ two variables are
> dependent?  For reasoning about "orphan variables" (e.g., you know nothing
> at all about Xi), just assume the average of all other distributions.  If
> you have P(Xi|Xj), and want P(Xj|Xi), fudge something together with Bayes'
> rule.  This isn't a complete solution, but its how I would start... Is this
> one of the things you've tried?
> 
> Cheers,
> Moshe


As Pei Wang said:  Intelligence is the ability to work and adapt to the environment 
with insufficient knowledge and resources.

I think this is a core principle of AGI design and that a system that only makes 
inferences it *knows* are correct would be fairly uninteresting and incapable of 
performing in the real world.  The fact that the information in the P(xi|xj) list is 
very incomplete is what makes the problem interesting.

Or maybe I'm misinterpreting your intent.


-Brad

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