On 3/20/07, Eric Baum <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

This is the problem with Wallace's complaints. You actually want the
"machine [to do] something unpredicted", namely the right thing in
unpredicted circumstances. Its true that its hard and expensive to
engineer/find an underlying compact explanation, but it is precisely
the fact that this very constrained/compact underlying program is
so improbable that makes it work! The arguments for its working
in fact *rest exactly* on the fact that it is so improbable, it
wouldn't exist unless it generalized to new experiences. So while
its hard to engineer this, which might be called emergence,
you will IMO be forced to if you want to succeed. That is the
reason why AGI is hard.


It's one reason why AGI is hard, and there is truth in what you say.

However, ab initio search for compact explanation is so hard that we humans
mostly don't do it because we can't. When we do have to bite the bullet and
explicitly attempt it, it often takes entire communities of geniuses working
for decades to produce a result that can be boiled down to a few lines.
Newton, Darwin, Einstein et al were by no means the only ones working on
their various problems. Koza has an example of the invention of a simple
circuit, I think it was the negative feedback amplifier or somesuch, you
could draw it on the back of a cigarette pack, it took a very bright
engineer months or years of thinking before he cracked it, and there were
lots of others trying at the same time.

What we mostly do is use existing solutions and blends thereof, that were
developed by our predecessors over millions of lifetimes. Even when I'm
programming, apparently writing new code, I'm really mostly using concepts I
learned from other people, tweaking and blending them to fit the current
context.

And an AGI will have to do the same. Yes, it will have to be able to bite
the bullet and run a full-blown search for a compact solution when
necessary. But that's just plain too hard to be doing all the time, so an
AGI will have to, like humans, mostly rely on existing concepts developed by
other people.

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