Richard Loosemore wrote:
Matt Mahoney wrote:
...
Matt,
...
As for your larger point, I continue to vehemently disagree with your
assertion that "a singularity will end the human race".
As far as I can see, the most likely outcome of a singularity would be
exactly the opposite. Rather than the end of the human race, just
some changes to the human race that most people would be deleriously
happy about.
Richard Loosemore
*Some* forms of the singularity would definitely end the human race.
Others definitely would not, though many of them would dramatically
change it. Which one will appear is not certain. Even among those
forms of the singularity that are caused by an AGI, this remains true.
It's also true that just which forms fall into which category depends
partially on what you are willing to acknowledge as human, but even
taking the most conservative normal meaning of the term the above
statements remain true.
OTOH, there are many events that we would not consider singularity, such
as a strike by a giant meteor, that would also end the human race. So
that is not a distinction of either the technological singularity or of AGI.
To me it appears that the best hope for the future is to work towards a
positive singularity outcome. There are certain to be many working on
projects that may result in a singularity without seriously considering
whether it will or will not be positive. And others working towards a
destructive singularity, but planning to control it. I may not think I
have much chance of success, but I can at least be *trying* to yield a
positive outcome.
(Objectively, I rate my chances of success as minimal. I'm hoping to
come up with an "intelligent" assistant that will have a mode of
operation similar to Eliza [but with *much* deeper understanding, that's
not asking for much] in the sense of being a conversationalist...someone
that one can talk things over with. Totally loyal to the employer...but
with a moral code. So far I haven't done very well, but if I am
successful, perhaps I can decrease the percentage of sociopaths.)
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