Charles D Hixson wrote:
Richard Loosemore wrote:
Matt Mahoney wrote:
...
Matt,
...
As for your larger point, I continue to vehemently disagree with your
assertion that "a singularity will end the human race".
As far as I can see, the most likely outcome of a singularity would be
exactly the opposite. Rather than the end of the human race, just
some changes to the human race that most people would be deleriously
happy about.
Richard Loosemore
*Some* forms of the singularity would definitely end the human race.
Others definitely would not, though many of them would dramatically
change it. Which one will appear is not certain. Even among those
forms of the singularity that are caused by an AGI, this remains true.
Theoretically yes, but behind my comment was a deeper analysis (which I
have posted before, I think) according to which it will actually be very
difficult for a negative-outcome singularity to occur.
I was really trying to make the point that a statement like "The
singularity WILL end the human race" is completely ridiculous. There is
no WILL about it.
The problem with the scenarios that people imagine (many of which are
Nightmare Scenarios) is that the vast majority of them involve
completely untenable assumptions. One example is the idea that there
will be a situation in the world in which there are many
superintelligent AGIs in the world, all competing with each other for
power in a souped up version of today's arms race(s). This is
extraordinarily unlikely: the speed of development would be such that
one would have an extremely large time advantage (head start) on the
others, and during that time it would merge the others with itself, to
ensure that there was no destructive competition. Whichever way you try
to think about this situation, the same conclusion seems to emerge.
This argument needs more detail, but the important point is that there
*is* an argument.
Richard Loosemore.
It's also true that just which forms fall into which category depends
partially on what you are willing to acknowledge as human, but even
taking the most conservative normal meaning of the term the above
statements remain true.
OTOH, there are many events that we would not consider singularity, such
as a strike by a giant meteor, that would also end the human race. So
that is not a distinction of either the technological singularity or of
AGI.
To me it appears that the best hope for the future is to work towards a
positive singularity outcome. There are certain to be many working on
projects that may result in a singularity without seriously considering
whether it will or will not be positive. And others working towards a
destructive singularity, but planning to control it. I may not think I
have much chance of success, but I can at least be *trying* to yield a
positive outcome.
(Objectively, I rate my chances of success as minimal. I'm hoping to
come up with an "intelligent" assistant that will have a mode of
operation similar to Eliza [but with *much* deeper understanding, that's
not asking for much] in the sense of being a conversationalist...someone
that one can talk things over with. Totally loyal to the employer...but
with a moral code. So far I haven't done very well, but if I am
successful, perhaps I can decrease the percentage of sociopaths.)
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