Well, first of all - what exactly human being? Einstein or my poor
self? Then why
actually human? Why not deux ex machina (super-human intelligence) since
day 1?
IMHO because AGI as well as any other technology will not happen in one big
singular blast.
In the specific context of investors awareness and attitude it may be a
good idea to
earn some credit by replacing travel agent before you ask them to credit
you with
replacing Einstein. Starting off with Einstein may IMHO damage AGI in
the same
way in which similar claims did damage AI. Of course it is your right to
believe
that replacing Einstein will require same level of effort (and
investment) as
replacing travel agent. I wish (even though I do not believe) that you
are right.
It is just some experience with investors that I have which makes me
doubt that they
will buy into the idea of funding Einstein before you have proven you
can deal with
the travel agent.
Regards
Nikolay
Richard Loosemore wrote:
Nikolay Ognyanov wrote:
IMHO :
The stated expected benefit of AGI development is overly ambitious on
the
science&technology side and not ambitious enough on the social&economy
side. For AGI to become the Next Big Thing it does not really have to
come
up with the best medical researcher. Nor would a great medical
researcher
have as much impact on the way current civilization works as replacement
of human workers in the sector of services. Impact of previous
technology
revolutions can be described in a very fundamental way as freeing
(liberating?
discharging?) people from engagement in hunting and similar, then
agriculture
and similar, then industry and similar. Well, industry in still in
the working
and AGI could help there too but the direction is clear. Services are
next area
of human social&economic activity to benefit and suffer at same scale
as others
did earlier from technology. This is the most obvious general social
role and
"selling point" of AGI at least until/unless it becomes true deux ex
machina ;).
To liberate (but also : discharge, which is going to be a huge
adoption/penetration
problem) humans from engagement in providing economically significant
services
to other humans. What such roles and how does AGI address/fulfill
should be the
key metric if it is to be "sold" outside a community which is
motivated by the
intellectual challenge alone.
So IMHO if you want to sell AGI to investors you better start with
replacing
travel agents, brokers, receptionists, personal assistants etc. etc.
rather than
researchers.
I'm sorry, but this makes no sense at all: this is a complete
negation of what "AGI" means.
If you could build a (completely safe, I am assuming) system that
could think in *every* way as powerfully as a human being, what would
you teach it to become:
1) A travel Agent.
2) A medical researcher who could learn to be the world's leading
specialist in a particular field, and then be duplicated so that you
instantly had 1,000 world-class specialists in that field.
3) An expert in AGI system design, who could then design a faster
generation of AGI systems, so that, as a researcher in any scientific
field, these second-generation systems could generate new knowledge
faster than all the human scientists and engineers on the planet.
?
To say to an investor that AGI would be useful because we could use
them to build travel agents and receptionists is to utter something
completely incoherent.
This is the "Everything Just The Same, But With Robots" fallacy.
Richard Loosemore
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--
*Nikolay Ognyanov, PhD*
Chief Technology Officer
*TravelStoreMaker.com Inc.* <http://www.travelstoremaker.com/>
Phone: +359 2 933 3832
Fax: +359 2 983 6475
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