If you're a potential AGI investor you'll probably want to hold out until some kind of "proof of concept" system is produced. That is, some system which shows interesting behavior above and beyond previous narrow AI systems, and which looks like it will scale (the scaling issue is perhaps the most important aspect). In my opinion such a system does not yet exist, but it could appear at any time - maybe as a Second Life virtual agent, or some other manifestation.
On 18/04/2008, Benjamin Johnston <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > I have stuck my neck out and written an Open Letter to AGI (Artificial > General Intelligence) Investors on my website at http://susaro.com. > > > > All part of a campaign to get this field jumpstarted. > > > > Next week I am going to put up a road map for my own development project. > > > > > Hi Richard, > > If I were a potential investor, I don't think I'd find your letter > convincing. > > AI was first coined some 50 years ago: before I was born, and therefore > long before I entered the field of AI. Naturally, I can't speak with > personal experience on the matter, but when I read the early literature on > AI or when I read about field's pioneers reminiscing on the early days, I > get the distinct impression that this was an incredibly passionate and > excited group. I would feel comfortable calling them a "gang of hot-headed > revolutionaries" - even today, 50 years after inventing the term "AI" and at > the age of 80, McCarthy writes about AI and the possibility of strong AI > with passion and excitement. Yet, in spite of all the hype, excitement and > investment that was apparently around during that time (or, more likely, as > a result of the hype and excitement) the field crashed in the "AI winter" of > the 80s without finding that "dramatic breakthrough". > > There's the Japanese Fifth Generation Computer Systems project that I > understand to be a massive billion dollar investment during the 80s into > parallel machines and artificial intelligence; an "investment" that is today > largely considered to be a huge failure. > > And of course, there's Cyc; formed with an inspiring aim to capture all > commonsense knowledge, but still remains in development some 20 years later. > > And in addition to these, there are the many many early research papers on > AI problem solving systems that show early promise and cause the authors to > make wild predictions and claims in their "Future Work"... predictions that > time has reliably proven to be false. > > So, why would I want to invest now? When I track down the biographies of > several of the regulars on this list, I find that they entered the field > during or after the AI Winter and never experienced the early optimism as an > "insider". How can you convince an investor that the passion today isn't > just the unfounded optimism of researchers who don't remember the past? How > can you convince an investor that AGI isn't also going to devolve again into > an emphasis on publications rather than quality (as you claim AI has > devolved) or into a new kind of "weak AGI" with no "dramatic breakthrough"? > > I think a better argument would be to point to a fundamental technological > or methodological change that makes AGI finally credible. I'm not convinced > that being "lean, mean, hungry and hellbent on getting results" is enough. > If I believe in AGI, maybe my best bet is to invest my money elsewhere and > wait until the fundamental attitudes have changed so each dollar will have a > bigger impact, rather than squandered on a bad dead-end idea. Alternately, > my best bet may be to invest in weak AI because it will give me a short-term > profit (that can be reinvested) AND has a plausible case for eventually > developing into strong AI. If you can offer no good reason to invest in AGI > today (given all its past failures), aside from a renewed passion of its > researchers, then a sane reader would have to conclude that AGI is probably > a bad investment. > > > Personally, I'm not sure what I feel about AGI (though, I wouldn't be here > if I didn't think it was valuable and promising). However, in this email I'm > trying to play the "devil's advocate" in response to your open letter to > investors. > > -Ben > > > ------------------------------------------- > agi > Archives: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > RSS Feed: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ > Modify Your Subscription: > http://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com > ------------------------------------------- agi Archives: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ Modify Your Subscription: http://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=101455710-f059c4 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
