I see the failure in this argument at step 2. Cybersex is a kind of erotic interaction. Erotic interactions are often called "sex" in general conversation, even though there are many kinds of erotic interactions that don't result in the transmission of STDs, that can't lead to children, that don't involve the exchange of bodily fluids, and so on.
I think you have: P(erotic | cybersex) = high P(erotic | sex) = high P(STD | sex) = high P(STD | cybersex) = ? Though, if you had a heuristic that "similar things should have similar effects", you'd be in trouble again: P(A|B)=high, P(A|C)=high, P(D|C)=high ------------------------------------- P(D|B)=moderate But the failure of a rule like this would probably be better regarded as the breakdown of a heuristic that generally works. You can't expect a heuristic to be correct all the time. I guess I'm saying that many general rules with exceptions can probably be reengineered to avoid the exception in the first place. If you get a computer virus during cybersex, is that an STD? :) -Ben -----Original Message----- From: YKY (Yan King Yin) [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, 29 July 2008 12:04 AM To: [email protected] Subject: [agi] a fuzzy reasoning problem Here is an example of a problematic inference: 1. Mary has cybersex with many different partners 2. Cybersex is a kind of sex 3. Therefore, Mary has many sex partners 4. Having many sex partners -> high chance of getting STDs 5. Therefore, Mary has a high chance of STDs What's wrong with this argument? It seems that a general rule is involved in step 4, and that rule can be "refined" with some qualifications (ie, it does not apply to all kinds of sex). But the question is, how can an AGI detect that an exception to a general rule has occurred? Or, do we need to explicitly state the exceptions to every rule? Thanks for any comments! YKY ------------------------------------------- agi Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com ------------------------------------------- agi Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=108809214-a0d121 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
