Matt:You absolutely must have a means of guessing probabilities to do
anything at all in the real world
Do you mean mathematically? Estimating chances as roughly, even if
provisionally, 0.70? If so, manifestly, that is untrue. What are your
chances that you will get lucky tonight? Will an inability to guess the
probability stop you trying? Most of the time, arguably, we have to and do,
act on the basis of truly vague magnitudes - a mathematically horrendously
rough sense of probability. Or just: "what the heck - what's the worst that
can happen? Let's do it. And let's just pray it works out." How precise a
sense of the probabilities attending his current decisions does even a
professionally mathematical man like Bernanke have?
Only AGI's in a virtual world can live with cosy, mathematically calculable
"uncertainty." Living in the real world is as Kauffman points out to a great
extent living with *mystery*. What are the maths of mystery? Do you think
Ben has the least realistic idea of the probabilities affecting his AGI
projects? That's not how most creative projects get done, or life gets
lived. Quadrillions, Matt, schmazillions.
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agi
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