Mike, standard Bayesianism somewhat accounts for this-- exact-number probabilities are defined by the math, but in no way are they seen as the "real" probability values. A subjective prior is chosen, which defines all further probabilities, but that prior is not believed to be correct. Subsequent experience tends to outweigh the prior, so the probabilities after experience are much more accurate than before, even though they are still not perfectly accurate.
And while we may not be able to articulate our exact belief levels in English, I could still argue that the level of activation in the brain is a precise value. So, just because an AI uses probabilities at the implementation level does not mean it would be able to articulate exact numbers consciously. Of course, none of this is an argument *for* the use of probabilities... --Abram On Thu, Sep 4, 2008 at 5:29 PM, Mike Tintner <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Matt, > > I'm confused here. What I mean is that in real life, the probabilities are > mathematically incalculable, period, a good deal of the time - you cannot > go, as you v. helpfully point out, much beyond saying this is "fairly > probable", "may happen", "there's some chance.." And those words are fairly > good reflections of how we actually reason and "anti-calculate" > probabilities -*without* numbers or any maths... And such non-mathematical > vagueness seems foundational for AGI. You can't, for example, calculate > mathematically the likeness or the truthfulness of metaphorical terms - of > storms and swirling milk in a teacup. Not even provisionally. > > My understanding is that AGI-ers still persist in trying to use numbers, and > you seem, in your first sentence, to be advocating the same. > > > Matt: I mean that you have to assign likelihoods to beliefs, even if the > numbers are wrong. Logic systems where every statement is true or false > simply are too brittle to scale beyond toy problems. Everything in life is > uncertain, including the degree of uncertainty. That's why we use terms like > "probably", "maybe", etc. instead of numbers. >> >> -- >>> >>> Matt:You absolutely must have a means of guessing >>> probabilities to do >>> anything at all in the real world >>> > MT: Do you mean mathematically? Estimating chances as roughly, >>> >>> even if >>> provisionally, 0.70? If so, manifestly, that is untrue. >>> What are your >>> chances that you will get lucky tonight? Will an inability >>> to guess the >>> probability stop you trying? Most of the time, arguably, >>> we have to and do, >>> act on the basis of truly vague magnitudes - a >>> mathematically horrendously >>> rough sense of probability. Or just: "what the heck - >>> what's the worst that >>> can happen? Let's do it. And let's just pray it >>> works out." How precise a >>> sense of the probabilities attending his current decisions >>> does even a >>> professionally mathematical man like Bernanke have? >>> >>> Only AGI's in a virtual world can live with cosy, >>> mathematically calculable >>> "uncertainty." Living in the real world is as >>> Kauffman points out to a great >>> extent living with *mystery*. What are the maths of >>> mystery? Do you think >>> Ben has the least realistic idea of the probabilities >>> affecting his AGI >>> projects? That's not how most creative projects get >>> done, or life gets >>> lived. Quadrillions, Matt, schmazillions. >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> ------------------------------------------- >>> agi >>> Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now >>> RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ >>> Modify Your Subscription: >>> https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; >>> Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com >> >> >> ------------------------------------------- >> agi >> Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now >> RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ >> Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; >> Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com >> > > > > > ------------------------------------------- > agi > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ > Modify Your Subscription: > https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com > ------------------------------------------- agi Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=111637683-c8fa51 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
