Note that the previous guess was done prior to the deadline extension from March to April.
It is nevertheless interesting to see how the competition evolved: These are the numbers from January 5: Number of members in the various forums: Android Beginners. 2072 Android Developers: 6803 Android Internals: 966 Android Challenge: 1308 Android Discuss: 855 anddev.org: 585 And these are the numbers as of today, April 7, one week before the new deadline: Android Beginners. 3478 (+68%) Android Developers: 8573 (+26%) Android Internals: 1510 (+56%) Android Challenge: 1984 (+52%) Android Discuss: 1300 (+52%) anddev.org: 1876 (+220%) First of all, this means that anddev.org did a marvellous job in increasing their user base! :-) More interestingly, the developer's forum grew slower than all other forums! This may actually indicate that the developer's forums number has been overestimated at the beginning. This comes as no surprise, as the original forum was only the developer's forum, and that split into the other groups. Subtracting a constant 3500 members from developer's forum results in a comparable increase as the other forums ((8573-3500) / (6803-3500) = +53%). 50% increase over the last 13 weeks corresponds to roughly 20% over the last 6 weeks. So increasing the deadline by 6 weeks merely resulted in maybe 20% more applications submitted than would have been submitted already in March (just talking about the number of applications - not their quality!) Adding the 20% to the 250 non-trivial working applications in the original post, you end up with 300 applications mentioned above :-) If you have a working application that is not completely trivial, chances of winning in the first round are roughly 1/6 (meaning if you have 5 friends who submit, one of them or yourself may actually win). Peli PS: Do I have 5 friends in this forum who have non-trivial working applications, but think they can not win? :-) On Apr 7, 6:06 pm, "Muthuselvam Ramadoss" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > 10000 vs 300 > > that's a huge gap.. proves my estimate is really an uneducated guess! > > On Mon, Apr 7, 2008 at 9:17 PM, Kornelius Tuggerson < > > > > [EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > In the previous post about the number of entries it was estimated that > > there would be about 300 viable entries that don't crash and actually > > do something useful. That sounds about right to me. > > >http://groups.google.com/group/android-challenge/browse_thread/thread... > > > On Apr 7, 8:37 am, "Muthuselvam Ramadoss" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > wrote: > > > around 10k is my uneducated guess. ofcourse, i'll change this soon ;) > > > > On Mon, Apr 7, 2008 at 5:55 PM, Hielko <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > How many submissions will there be for the first round of the Android > > > > Challenge? I think it will be in the neighborhood of one thousend > > > > submissions, what do you think? Make an educated guess. > > > > -- > > > take care, > > > Muthu Ramadoss. > > > >http://mobeegal.in-find stuff closer. > > -- > take care, > Muthu Ramadoss. > > http://mobeegal.in- find stuff closer. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Android Challenge" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/android-challenge?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
