Peli, What an analysis, WOW!
ADC Judges, You don't have to look at Peli's submission. Go ahead and award him the prize, right now :) On Mon, Apr 7, 2008 at 10:47 PM, Peli <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Note that the previous guess was done prior to the deadline extension > from March to April. > > It is nevertheless interesting to see how the competition evolved: > These are the numbers from January 5: > Number of members in the various forums: > Android Beginners. 2072 > Android Developers: 6803 > Android Internals: 966 > Android Challenge: 1308 > Android Discuss: 855 > anddev.org: 585 > > And these are the numbers as of today, April 7, one week before the > new deadline: > Android Beginners. 3478 (+68%) > Android Developers: 8573 (+26%) > Android Internals: 1510 (+56%) > Android Challenge: 1984 (+52%) > Android Discuss: 1300 (+52%) > anddev.org: 1876 (+220%) > > First of all, this means that anddev.org did a marvellous job in > increasing their user base! :-) > > More interestingly, the developer's forum grew slower than all other > forums! This may actually indicate that the developer's forums number > has been overestimated at the beginning. This comes as no surprise, as > the original forum was only the developer's forum, and that split into > the other groups. Subtracting a constant 3500 members from developer's > forum results in a comparable increase as the other forums > ((8573-3500) / (6803-3500) = +53%). > > 50% increase over the last 13 weeks corresponds to roughly 20% over > the last 6 weeks. So increasing the deadline by 6 weeks merely > resulted in maybe 20% more applications submitted than would have been > submitted already in March (just talking about the number of > applications - not their quality!) > > Adding the 20% to the 250 non-trivial working applications in the > original post, you end up with 300 applications mentioned above :-) > > If you have a working application that is not completely trivial, > chances of winning in the first round are roughly 1/6 (meaning if you > have 5 friends who submit, one of them or yourself may actually win). > > Peli > > PS: Do I have 5 friends in this forum who have non-trivial working > applications, but think they can not win? :-) > > On Apr 7, 6:06 pm, "Muthuselvam Ramadoss" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > wrote: > > 10000 vs 300 > > > > that's a huge gap.. proves my estimate is really an uneducated guess! > > > > On Mon, Apr 7, 2008 at 9:17 PM, Kornelius Tuggerson < > > > > > > > > [EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > In the previous post about the number of entries it was estimated that > > > there would be about 300 viable entries that don't crash and actually > > > do something useful. That sounds about right to me. > > > > >http://groups.google.com/group/android-challenge/browse_thread/thread. > .. > > > > > On Apr 7, 8:37 am, "Muthuselvam Ramadoss" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > > wrote: > > > > around 10k is my uneducated guess. ofcourse, i'll change this soon > ;) > > > > > > On Mon, Apr 7, 2008 at 5:55 PM, Hielko <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > How many submissions will there be for the first round of the > Android > > > > > Challenge? I think it will be in the neighborhood of one thousend > > > > > submissions, what do you think? Make an educated guess. > > > > > > -- > > > > take care, > > > > Muthu Ramadoss. > > > > > >http://mobeegal.in-find stuff closer. > > > > -- > > take care, > > Muthu Ramadoss. > > > > http://mobeegal.in- find stuff closer. > > > -- take care, Muthu Ramadoss. http://mobeegal.in - find stuff closer. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Android Challenge" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/android-challenge?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
