On Sep 30, 2014, at 11:46 AM, Mike Burns <[email protected]> wrote: > Hi John, > > Thanks for the info. > I don't think Geoff is properly adjusting for ARIN's team review rate, which > is around 200 per month.
Geoff's numbers are based allocation rate. > Reading between the lines, I think this is about ARIN's max carrying rate > without schedule slippage. We actually have been fairly creative (e.g. moving IPv6 and ASN requests to additional resources to free up more time for IPv4 requests); there are other similar options if needed, so I'm going to disagree on that assertion of a "max carrying rate." > Considering the nature of the remaining pool dregs, ARIN will be needing to > do around 1200 team reviews of the /23 and /24s which will remain in > inventory near the end. The amount of time to process such requests is highly dependent on the preparation level of the requester and the policy which is defined by this community; both of these are to-be-determined. > So as I see it, there is at least six months AFTER all the larger blocks go > away before we are empty. It could be much longer, depending on the requests for smaller blocks versus more mid-sized (which will end up on the waiting list) > The projected date of the ides of March is too early, as it is less than six > months from now. Complete runout is unlikely to be cleanly predictable; e.g. in the APNIC region, they still have IPv4 resources but are issued per their austerity policies. In the ARIN region, we'll be "out" when the first request is approved but there not IPv4 resources to fulfill the request and the waiting list policy is triggered. > The projection difficulties that result from the disparate nature of > allocation sizes diminishes as we reach the dregs. See above... Geoff has been predicting effective depletion based on run rate, not complete lack of IPv4 resources in the region. Thanks! /John John Curran President and CEO ARIN _______________________________________________ PPML You are receiving this message because you are subscribed to the ARIN Public Policy Mailing List ([email protected]). Unsubscribe or manage your mailing list subscription at: http://lists.arin.net/mailman/listinfo/arin-ppml Please contact [email protected] if you experience any issues.
