If folks are (still) really interested in playing around with the Run-Out forecasting, I developed a set of scripts to automate this:
https://github.com/akhepcat/ARIN-Runout You can play around with the polynomial functions to see what works best on the timescales that you're interested in. I provide three different options for the start-date built-in (epoch, y2k, 2013) Based on run-rate for 2000-to-date, my best-fit curves point to about Feb/Mar 2015. Whereas contrasted against 2013-to-date, which doesn't see run-out until after Aug 2015. Again, it's all a matter of curve-fitting and getting more data. There's not going to be any one "correct" date. -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of John Curran Sent: Tuesday, September 30, 2014 8:29 AM To: [email protected] Cc: [email protected] Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] Queue depth report? On Sep 30, 2014, at 11:56 AM, Bill Owens <[email protected]> wrote: > On Tue, Sep 30, 2014 at 11:46:24AM -0400, Mike Burns wrote: >> Also we know that most allocation requests are for much larger >> blocks, thus we know that applicants will go away for at least three >> months between their meager allocations. > > Does the 4.1.8 policy of assigning only a single block for each request mean > that if an application were approved for, say, a /22 but only /24s were > available, that applicant would have only two choices, either take a single > /24 or wait until a /22 was returned to the pool? Correct. > Is there no option for them to say that four non-contiguous /24s would be > acceptable to them? Also correct; I believe that the community was concerned that (as we approached depletion) a single very large request could effectively deplete the entire IPv4 block inventory, hence the 4.1.8 constraints on receiving a single block for each request. FYI, /John John Curran President and CEO ARIN _______________________________________________ PPML You are receiving this message because you are subscribed to the ARIN Public Policy Mailing List ([email protected]). Unsubscribe or manage your mailing list subscription at: http://lists.arin.net/mailman/listinfo/arin-ppml Please contact [email protected] if you experience any issues. _______________________________________________ PPML You are receiving this message because you are subscribed to the ARIN Public Policy Mailing List ([email protected]). Unsubscribe or manage your mailing list subscription at: http://lists.arin.net/mailman/listinfo/arin-ppml Please contact [email protected] if you experience any issues.
