It's utterly simple to create artificial entities, if necessary.
There are only about 48,000 /16s en toto in all of the IPv4 unicast space.
In reality, when you consider the potential transfer market, it's more
likely on the order of 4,000.
Want to bet that there are not organizations out there that would be able to
create enough entities to absorbe 4,000 /16s pretty quickly for the sake of
attempting to flip them at a speculative profit?
I think it's a bad bet.
Owen
Hi Owen,
That old chestnut again. So little faith in ARIN staff members to detect
what would have to be monumental levels of fraud before any market
manipulation could be achieved. ARIN legal staff has reviewed 2014-14,
remember, and found your argument lacking.
First, where do you go to find 4,000 /16s? Not that I am accepting that
number, I argue the potential transfer market as more like 12,000 /16
equivalents (before more widespread CGN could enlarge that number).
How do you negotiate quietly with the many, many sellers whom you would have
to spend a long time finding?
Or would you put an ad in the NY Times and hope it escaped the notice of the
ARIN community, even though I assume it would be community members engaging
in at least one side of these transactions?
Do you think ARIN staff, a group that has processed a few hundred transfers,
would be able to even process those transactions in a timeframe and manner
invisible to policymakers?
And what is the entity willing to engage in arguable fraud, who also has the
desire and finances to invest billions of dollars in an asset whose value
will decline with every new incentive to transition to IPv6?
Or instead of one or two nefarious actors, you assume there would be many
smaller fraudsters engaging in enough rampant speculation to impact the
market.
And how many flippers are active in a market with falling prices and an
asset value of zero?
And if they flip them to a person who needs them, and makes money in the
process, what, exactly is the evil?
Where is the evidence of anyone, anywhere, buying Ipv4 addresses with an
intent to profit through their resale?
Unless you can provide some, why do we hold policy in thrall to the
bogeyman?
I guess that's a long way of saying I would absolutely take your bet.
Regards,
Mike
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