Mike, I think that the main difference is that during the draft, young men spent considerable amounts of energy avoiding the draft. In this case there's no reason to suspect that men will enroll in college to avoid the stop gap measures.
Obviously some people will be unlikely to enlist if they think that they might not be able to leave on time. What is the elasticity of supply for enlistees? I suspect it is pretty inelastic with regards to potentail stop gap measures. You might find that the numbers are not too different. Also, what sort of choices do enlistees have? If an enlistee thinks that he will be forced to stay if he chooses intel, will he be able to get into procurement instead? If that is the case, then you might find that you don't get the best people for particular jobs. Mitch ----- Original Message ----- From: Strobl Maj Michael R <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Date: Wednesday, February 13, 2002 8:47 am Subject: The Economics of Military Stop-Loss Policies > Armchairs, > > The military's current stop-loss policy prevents certain service > membersfrom leaving the service at the end of their normal > enlistment contract. > This policy is affecting specific skills and grades deemed > critical for the > war on terrorism. In econimic terms, what are the similarities and > dissimilarities between stop-loss and a conventional draft? > > My thoughts... > > Similarities: > - Those affected by stop-loss are, in a sense, draftees. > - Therefore, stop-loss bypasses efficient labor market allocation > mechanisms. > - Stop-loss will tend to understate the economic (if not > accounting) cost of > military manpower--the largest portion of the defense budget. > - Stop-loss (arguably) encourages inefficient utilization of society's > resources. > > Dissimilarities: > - Those affected presumably have a higher preference for military > servicethan those normally targeted in a "conventional draft" > (i.e., the 18 year > old with little or no inclination toward military service). How > does this > affect the concept of economic rents? > - Stop-loss doesn't require nearly the bureacratic overhead (e.g., > selectiveservice system, tracking down evaders) of a conventional > draft.- Under a conventional draft, and the military's current > closed labor > system, you can't draft, say, an intelligence specialist with 10 > year's of > experience. > > Your thoughts... > > Regards, > Maj Mike Strobl > USMC, Manpower Analyst > >
