I think you could get into a whole lot of trouble since for any event you
predict that happens, if the common opinion is that you have somehow encouraged
it, the burden of proof on the civil level will effectively be on you to show
that you haven't, which of course will likely be impossible. Also, from
questions I asked some of the IEM people a while back, the story goes that most
futures markets require heavy regulation, and that they managed to get a "no
action" letter from some agency that guaranteed they would not be hassled with
it, since otherwise they could be. The other alternative is to put up your own
money prizes for futures, so that you are "giving it away creatively," but that
doesn't really help with the above problem. I'm sure there must be some people
on here that had a hand in the Arizona exchange, and I would be thrilled to hear
the story of how they managed that.
Quoting fabio guillermo rojas <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
> > I help run a large non-profit colocation and hosting center for various
> > groups of which an implementation of this would fit perfectly with our
> > mission.
> > If people are interested in trying this in a fully transparent method I am
> > willing to provide our resources and my time to make it happen.
> > Thanks,
> > davidu
> Seriously - how hard is it to set up such a market? If indeed it can lead
> to better prediction of violent events, and if it is something that is
> relatively easy to set up, then why not? Could this be shut down by the
> Feds? Under what justifications?
> Fabio Rojas