Notes from the closing keynote, again my running notes, no editing.
Marketing VP Paul Appleby introduces futurist Tony Seba.
Tony will speak about Disruption
Tony addresses the fact the disruption happens quickly. The car replaced the
horse in New York (except for one in each of the picture) between 1900 and
1913. Cell phones accepted by 120 times more people than forecast by AT&T.
Kodak went from 14B$ to bankruptcy in 12 years.
Why do smart people in smart companies consistently fail to see the future? It
is usually the experts and the insiders who miss the effect of disruption.
Disruption from below
Disruptive products are initially less capable than the existing technology
They improve quality at a faster rates and displace the mainstream
Who would want a computer in their house? Print newspapers, digital
photography, cellular telephony as examples of disruption from below
Disruption from above
Superiors products and services which are more capable are far more expensive
at the start, these do not innovate or improve as rapidly, but they cut their
costs dramatically and thus disrupt the market. Best example is Tesla Motors.
Big Bang disruption
Google maps disrupted Garmin, TomTom. Better product AND continuous innovation.
Exponential technologies
Moore's law: cost per technology, 1,000,000,000 x over 40 years, several
examples for transistors, storage, images, network speed.
10 disruptive technologies
Internet of things - sensors 1000x in just 7 years. 1300 sensors per person per
year
Wearable washable shirts with embedded DKG sensors
Vehicle to vehicle communications V2V
Nest
All of these gazillions of sensors are generating gobs of data all the time.
Bronto-data and epto-data
3d printing
The guy who invented the wheel was an idiot. The guy who invented the other
3 was a genius - Sid Caesar
Invisalign printed 17 million sets of dental braces in a 24x7 lights out
facility last year
AI
Robotic/sAuto cars
1918 - 7.7% of Americans owned a car. In 1929 80%. What happened? GMAC
financing!
1986 Kodak invented digital imaging with a 1.4 megapixel sensor
Kodak KNEW that digital imaging revolution was coming
Kodak did not capitalize on the forecast
BUSINESS model innovation is just as important as technical innovation
Electric vehicles
Tesla electronc vehicles are disrupting
Electronc motors 5x as efficient as gas engine
Uses less energy overall (15k in gas over 5 years vs 1500 in
electricity over 5 years
Less expensive to maintain
8 year warranty. 90% fewer parts
Free charging at Telsa stations
This is a disruptive business model
Cost of E V will be equal to avg cost of US car, 31$. That's SUX YEARS.
All new cars will be electric by 2030 (or sooner)
Oil will be obsolete by 2030
4 other disruptive technologies that went off the screen fast - look out!
We have entered an era of permanent disruption.
Every industry in the world will be disrupted in the next 10-15 years.
Tony's Book: .Clean Disruption, published couple months ago.
information technologies are at the core of these permanent disruption.
This is not in the future. This is happening right now.
Choosing to wait is choosing to be disrupted
End of Tony Seba's keynote about Disruption
Paul Appleby returns to the stage, commenting that the world is changing
outside the company, but inside the company it has not been changing as rapidly
as it needs to. Information technology can be used to drive the change.
Montage of ENGAGE videos, including shots from the party at Universal last night
Paul: can't wait to see what it looks like in a year!
See you at Engage 2015 September 8-15, 2015 in Las Vegas.
Doug
--
Doug Blair
+1 224-558-5462
Sent from my iPad Air
Auto-corrected typos, misspellings and non-sequiturs are gratefully attributed
to Steve Jobs :-)
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