This must have been an engaging topic. Cheers
Joe -----Original Message----- From: Action Request System discussion list(ARSList) [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Blairing Sent: Thursday, October 16, 2014 9:38 AM To: [email protected] Subject: Re: ENGAGE 2014 Commentary Notes from the closing keynote, again my running notes, no editing. Marketing VP Paul Appleby introduces futurist Tony Seba. Tony will speak about Disruption Tony addresses the fact the disruption happens quickly. The car replaced the horse in New York (except for one in each of the picture) between 1900 and 1913. Cell phones accepted by 120 times more people than forecast by AT&T. Kodak went from 14B$ to bankruptcy in 12 years. Why do smart people in smart companies consistently fail to see the future? It is usually the experts and the insiders who miss the effect of disruption. Disruption from below Disruptive products are initially less capable than the existing technology They improve quality at a faster rates and displace the mainstream Who would want a computer in their house? Print newspapers, digital photography, cellular telephony as examples of disruption from below Disruption from above Superiors products and services which are more capable are far more expensive at the start, these do not innovate or improve as rapidly, but they cut their costs dramatically and thus disrupt the market. Best example is Tesla Motors. Big Bang disruption Google maps disrupted Garmin, TomTom. Better product AND continuous innovation. Exponential technologies Moore's law: cost per technology, 1,000,000,000 x over 40 years, several examples for transistors, storage, images, network speed. 10 disruptive technologies Internet of things - sensors 1000x in just 7 years. 1300 sensors per person per year Wearable washable shirts with embedded DKG sensors Vehicle to vehicle communications V2V Nest All of these gazillions of sensors are generating gobs of data all the time. Bronto-data and epto-data 3d printing The guy who invented the wheel was an idiot. The guy who invented the other 3 was a genius - Sid Caesar Invisalign printed 17 million sets of dental braces in a 24x7 lights out facility last year AI Robotic/sAuto cars 1918 - 7.7% of Americans owned a car. In 1929 80%. What happened? GMAC financing! 1986 Kodak invented digital imaging with a 1.4 megapixel sensor Kodak KNEW that digital imaging revolution was coming Kodak did not capitalize on the forecast BUSINESS model innovation is just as important as technical innovation Electric vehicles Tesla electronc vehicles are disrupting Electronc motors 5x as efficient as gas engine Uses less energy overall (15k in gas over 5 years vs 1500 in electricity over 5 years Less expensive to maintain 8 year warranty. 90% fewer parts Free charging at Telsa stations This is a disruptive business model Cost of E V will be equal to avg cost of US car, 31$. That's SUX YEARS. All new cars will be electric by 2030 (or sooner) Oil will be obsolete by 2030 4 other disruptive technologies that went off the screen fast - look out! We have entered an era of permanent disruption. Every industry in the world will be disrupted in the next 10-15 years. Tony's Book: .Clean Disruption, published couple months ago. information technologies are at the core of these permanent disruption. This is not in the future. This is happening right now. Choosing to wait is choosing to be disrupted End of Tony Seba's keynote about Disruption Paul Appleby returns to the stage, commenting that the world is changing outside the company, but inside the company it has not been changing as rapidly as it needs to. Information technology can be used to drive the change. Montage of ENGAGE videos, including shots from the party at Universal last night Paul: can't wait to see what it looks like in a year! See you at Engage 2015 September 8-15, 2015 in Las Vegas. Doug -- Doug Blair +1 224-558-5462 Sent from my iPad Air Auto-corrected typos, misspellings and non-sequiturs are gratefully attributed to Steve Jobs :-) ____________________________________________________________________________ ___ UNSUBSCRIBE or access ARSlist Archives at www.arslist.org "Where the Answers Are, and have been for 20 years" _______________________________________________________________________________ UNSUBSCRIBE or access ARSlist Archives at www.arslist.org "Where the Answers Are, and have been for 20 years"
