P Floding;180742 Wrote: 
> Here is a nice example how one extermely low probability, half crazy,
> theory ascends into established truth:
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Wegener

Nice example.  The history of science has several (many?) examples of
how outrageous ideas eventually become mainstream.

However, let's not forget that there are far, far more examples of
outrageous ideas that remain outrageous because they always were
stupid.

So, if there is general scientific consensus on something (eg HIV as a
cause for AIDS, or CO2 as a cause for global warming) then the
*likelihood* is that it is correct. Not certainty, of course - nothing
scientific is ever certain.

But to argue from "here is an example of where outrageous became
mainstream" to "therefore I will disbelieve all scientific consensus"
is, shall we say, a bit dodgy.

Just an opinion, of course.

Ceejay


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