If the active pilots estimate is based on GFA memberships, does it
include AEFs? GFA membership figures I've seen certainly used to include
them. I think for the purposes of this fatalities-per-km-flown
calculation we're trying to figure out, AEFs should be omitted since
they're not exactly typical of the glider pilot population.
Teal
On 4/03/2016 2:16 PM, Anthony Smith wrote:
From the Feb-Mar 2016 issue of Gliding Australia:
From 1 Oct 15 to 30 Nov 15: There were 34 reported accidents and
incidents.
Of these:
In flight                2
Launch                 5
Ground Ops      1
Landing               23
Outlanding         3
I havenât found the total reported hours for the same / similar
period yet. I will not hazard a guess about the average hours per year
per pilot.
Latest Gliding International magazine estimated that we have~2600
active pilots. Mandy reported 2560 active pilots in January this year.
*From:*Aus-soaring [mailto:aus-soaring-boun...@lists.base64.com.au]
*On Behalf Of *Mike Borgelt
*Sent:* Friday, 4 March 2016 12:48 PM
*To:* Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia.
<aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au>
*Subject:* Re: [Aus-soaring] Potential dangers in the sport of gliding
Making it anywhere from 50 to 80 km/hr isn't going to change things by
all that much.
Call it a good physics order of magnitude estimate. It is better than
that actually.
Mike
At 11:51 AM 3/4/2016, you wrote:
On 4/03/2016 12:07 PM, Mike Borgelt wrote:
I doubt you'll find glider crash rates per km. Hours, yes.
What is the average speed of a motorcycle on the roads. I'll
say 60km/h based on driving a car with a car computer a few times.
Off the top of my head, I couldn't say for sure. I don't have time
to go trawling through the literature right now, but I'd guess it
might be a bit higher than for cars, given the proportion of
motorcycle use that is recreational (as opposed to commuting in
traffic).
That gives you around one crash per 1600 hours or so for
motorcycles. I guess this is crashes not fatals? If so sounds
about right for gliders too.
Yep, that's crashes, not fatals. Finding papers that have exposure
data *and* fatality data for motorcycles would take a bit more
time (I didn't see any during my quickish search earlier); and the
nature of the beast is that just copypasting the exposure data
into someone else's fatality rate calculation is prone to give you
wildly inaccurate results, due to differences in sample
characteristics, methodology, etc, etc. (These things are never easy.)
Teal
Mike
At 10:58 AM 3/4/2016, you wrote:
On 4/03/2016 10:44 AM, DMcD wrote:
And I don't think you could compare gliding with
motorcycle riding (racing maybe). In terms of deaths
per hundred thousand rider or comp pilot hours, you'd
find a difference of several orders of magnitude. We
have whatââ¬Å 2500 pilots active in Australia? And
how many die each year? 1-2?
FWIW, I can help a bit with that question. Good road
traffic exposure data can be a bit hard to come by, but a
bit of searching found a paper* reporting motorcycle crash
rates for NSW from (I think) 2004, and they said: "The
mean crash rate (based on self-reported crash involvement)
was 0.96 crashes/100,000 km".
Now, if anyone has crash data and exposure figures for
glider pilots (measured in km travelled) then we can see
how glider fatalities compare with motorcycle fatalities,
should we so desire.
Teal
*Source: Harrison, W. A., & Christie, R. (2005). Exposure
survey of motorcyclists in New South Wales. /Accident
Analysis & Prevention/, /37/(3), 441-451.
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