>From the Feb-Mar 2016 issue of Gliding Australia:
>From 1 Oct 15 to 30 Nov 15: There were 34 reported accidents and incidents. Of these: In flight 2 Launch 5 Ground Ops 1 Landing 23 Outlanding 3 I haven’t found the total reported hours for the same / similar period yet. I will not hazard a guess about the average hours per year per pilot. Latest Gliding International magazine estimated that we have~2600 active pilots. Mandy reported 2560 active pilots in January this year. From: Aus-soaring [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Mike Borgelt Sent: Friday, 4 March 2016 12:48 PM To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia. <[email protected]> Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] Potential dangers in the sport of gliding Making it anywhere from 50 to 80 km/hr isn't going to change things by all that much. Call it a good physics order of magnitude estimate. It is better than that actually. Mike At 11:51 AM 3/4/2016, you wrote: On 4/03/2016 12:07 PM, Mike Borgelt wrote: I doubt you'll find glider crash rates per km. Hours, yes. What is the average speed of a motorcycle on the roads. I'll say 60km/h based on driving a car with a car computer a few times. Off the top of my head, I couldn't say for sure. I don't have time to go trawling through the literature right now, but I'd guess it might be a bit higher than for cars, given the proportion of motorcycle use that is recreational (as opposed to commuting in traffic). That gives you around one crash per 1600 hours or so for motorcycles. I guess this is crashes not fatals? If so sounds about right for gliders too. Yep, that's crashes, not fatals. Finding papers that have exposure data *and* fatality data for motorcycles would take a bit more time (I didn't see any during my quickish search earlier); and the nature of the beast is that just copypasting the exposure data into someone else's fatality rate calculation is prone to give you wildly inaccurate results, due to differences in sample characteristics, methodology, etc, etc. (These things are never easy.) Teal Mike At 10:58 AM 3/4/2016, you wrote: On 4/03/2016 10:44 AM, DMcD wrote: And I don't think you could compare gliding with motorcycle riding (racing maybe). In terms of deaths per hundred thousand rider or comp pilot hours, you'd find a difference of several orders of magnitude. We have what  2500 pilots active in Australia? And how many die each year? 1-2? FWIW, I can help a bit with that question. Good road traffic exposure data can be a bit hard to come by, but a bit of searching found a paper* reporting motorcycle crash rates for NSW from (I think) 2004, and they said: "The mean crash rate (based on self-reported crash involvement) was 0.96 crashes/100,000 km". Now, if anyone has crash data and exposure figures for glider pilots (measured in km travelled) then we can see how glider fatalities compare with motorcycle fatalities, should we so desire. Teal *Source: Harrison, W. A., & Christie, R. (2005). Exposure survey of motorcyclists in New South Wales. /Accident Analysis & Prevention/, /37/(3), 441-451. _______________________________________________ Aus-soaring mailing list [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring < http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring <http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring> > *Borgelt Instruments***- /design & manufacture of quality soaring instrumentation since 1978 / www.borgeltinstruments.com <http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/> < http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/ <http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/> >tel: 07 4635 5784overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784 mob: 042835 5784: int+61-42835 5784 P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia _______________________________________________ Aus-soaring mailing list [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring _______________________________________________ Aus-soaring mailing list [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring Borgelt Instruments - design & manufacture of quality soaring instrumentation since 1978 <http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/> www.borgeltinstruments.com tel: 07 4635 5784 overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784 mob: 042835 5784 : int+61-42835 5784 P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia
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