Mike, All good logical theoretical stuff. Perhaps funding is an impediment to doing what you suggest re data collection? I seem to recall seeing some rather gripping video on this - Maybe from NCAR?
However, would it be true to say, that all the models are accurate enough to predict that the people who live on the Queensland coast in the Mackay/Townsville belt are in "for a bit of a blow"? In the real world, the actuality is that these people are preparing for a major disaster! Lives will probably be lost, and there will be major property loss for sure, regardless of the exact track of the epicentre, or the eventual "category" that is assigned to "Cyclone Debbie" - currently Cat 4. Who on this forum, remembers Cyclone Yasi, from 2011? .... Just 6 years ago. If you choose to live in the tropics, you might give some thought to the cyclone risk, that you will encounter, possibly sooner, rather than later. Risk vs. reward. Gary From: Aus-soaring [mailto:aus-soaring-boun...@lists.base64.com.au] On Behalf Of Mike Borgelt Sent: Monday, 27 March 2017 9:51 PM To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia. Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] weather models Yes, it is clearly a Tropical Cyclone but only 12 hours or so before landfall the 3 models are still not saying the same things and the maximum wind speeds for tomorrow morning before landfall are showing only 100km/hour or so. Could intensify. What is the Sea Surface Temperature under the predicted track? A first world country would be flying aircraft over the cyclone at high altitude and putting dropsonde's into it regular time and distance intervals. or use a HALE (High Altitude Long Endurance) drone to do it. Put a small GPS chip in each sonde and report the speeds and altitudes and locations as it parachutes into the ocean. Then we'd have actual DATA. The weather above a cyclone at high altitude is benign. It is actually a high pressure area up near the tropopause. Look at the high altitude cirrus blow off on the satellite pictures, the circulation is anticlockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. Right now do the movie on the BoM site of the hi res satellite images. You'll see the low clouds circulating clockwise and the high clouds going anticlockwise. I used to do this stuff for a living. Mike At 07:35 PM 3/27/2017, you wrote: Mike, sitting in the disaster coord centre. have a look at the mackay radar. Classic high intensity cyclone with the hole in the middle. Peter Heath ------ Original Message ------ From: "Mike Borgelt" <mborg...@borgeltinstruments.com> To: "Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia." <aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au> Sent: Monday, 27 Mar, 2017 At 7:24 PM Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] weather models Ooh look, the models are converging less than 15 hours before 10am tomorrow! Real measured updates to re-initialise obviously work. Note however the difference between the models on maximum windspeed and extent of high wind area. It will be interesting to see the further convergence after more observational input updates. Mike At 03:03 PM 3/27/2017, you wrote: Those who have a touching faith in weather models might like to look at www.ventusky.com <http://www.ventusky.com/> and check where the cyclone will be at 10am tomorrow and what the wind speeds will be around it. The redo with the other 2 models. Mike Borgelt Instruments - design & manufacture of quality soaring instrumentation since 1978 www.borgeltinstruments.com <http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/> tel: 07 4635 5784 overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784 mob: 042835 5784 : int+61-42835 5784 P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia _______________________________________________ Aus-soaring mailing list Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring Borgelt Instruments - design & manufacture of quality soaring instrumentation since 1978 www.borgeltinstruments.com <http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/> tel: 07 4635 5784 overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784 mob: 042835 5784 : int+61-42835 5784 P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia _____ _______________________________________________ Aus-soaring mailing list Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring _______________________________________________ Aus-soaring mailing list Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring Borgelt Instruments - design & manufacture of quality soaring instrumentation since 1978 www.borgeltinstruments.com <http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/> tel: 07 4635 5784 overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784 mob: 042835 5784 : int+61-42835 5784 P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia
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