Mike,
All good logical theoretical stuff. Perhaps
funding is an impediment to doing what you
suggest re data collection? I seem to recall
seeing some rather gripping video on this Maybe from NCAR?
However, would it be true to say, that all the
models are accurate enough to predict that the
people who live on the Queensland coast in the
Mackay/Townsville belt are in for a bit of a blow?
In the real world, the actuality is that these
people are preparing for a major disaster!
Lives will probably be lost, and there will be
major property loss for sure, regardless of the
exact track of the epicentre, or the eventual
category that is assigned to Cyclone Debbie currently Cat 4.
Who on this forum, remembers Cyclone Yasi, from
2011? .... Just 6 years ago. If you choose to
live in the tropics, you might give some
thought to the cyclone risk, that you will
encounter, possibly sooner, rather than later. Risk vs. reward.
Gary
From: Aus-soaring
[<mailto:[email protected]>mailto:[email protected]]
On Behalf Of Mike Borgelt
Sent: Monday, 27 March 2017 9:51 PM
To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia.
Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] weather models
Yes, it is clearly a Tropical Cyclone but only
12 hours or so before landfall the 3 models are
still not saying the same things and the
maximum wind speeds for tomorrow morning before
landfall are showing only 100km/hour or so.
Could intensify. What is the Sea Surface
Temperature under the predicted track? A first
world country would be flying aircraft over
the cyclone at high altitude and putting
dropsonde's into it regular time and distance
intervals. or use a HALE (High Altitude Long
Endurance) drone to do it. Put a small GPS
chip in each sonde and report the speeds and
altitudes and locations as it parachutes into
the ocean. Then we'd have actual DATA. The
weather above a cyclone at high altitude is
benign. It is actually a high pressure area
up near the tropopause. Look at the high
altitude cirrus blow off on the satellite
pictures, the circulation is anticlockwise in
the Southern Hemisphere. Right now do the movie
on the BoM site of the hi res satellite
images. You'll see the low clouds circulating
clockwise and the high clouds going anticlockwise.
I used to do this stuff for a living.
Mike
At 07:35 PM 3/27/2017, you wrote:
Mike,
sitting in the disaster coord centre. have a
look at the mackay radar. Classic high
intensity cyclone with the hole in the middle.
Peter Heath
------ Original Message ------
From: "Mike Borgelt"
<<mailto:[email protected]>[email protected]>
To: "Discussion of issues relating to Soaring
in Australia."
<<mailto:[email protected]>[email protected]>
Sent: Monday, 27 Mar, 2017 At 7:24 PM
Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] weather models
Ooh look, the models are converging less than
15 hours before 10am tomorrow! Real measured
updates to re-initialise obviously work.
Note however the difference between the models
on maximum windspeed and extent of high wind
area. It will be interesting to see the further
convergence after more observational input updates.
Mike
At 03:03 PM 3/27/2017, you wrote:
Those who have a touching faith in weather
models might like to look at
<http://www.ventusky.com/>www.ventusky.com and
check where the cyclone will be at 10am
tomorrow and what the wind speeds will be around it.
The redo with the other 2 models.
Mike
Borgelt Instruments - design & manufacture of
quality soaring instrumentation since 1978
<http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/>www.borgeltinstruments.com
tel: 07 4635 5784 overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784
mob: 042835 5784 : int+61-42835 5784
P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia
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Borgelt Instruments - design & manufacture of
quality soaring instrumentation since 1978
<http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/>www.borgeltinstruments.com
tel: 07 4635 5784 overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784
mob: 042835 5784 : int+61-42835 5784
P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia
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_______________________________________________
Aus-soaring mailing list
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http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring
Borgelt Instruments - design & manufacture of
quality soaring instrumentation since 1978
<http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/>www.borgeltinstruments.com
tel: 07 4635 5784 overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784
mob: 042835 5784 : int+61-42835 5784
P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia
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