It looks like the ICON model on Ventusky is the most accurate for position.
Hamilton Is. had a gust to 125Kts a short time ago. Was pretty close to the eye
wall at the time.
https://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/science/models/icon/
Graham
On 27/03/2017 8:44 PM, Gary Stevenson wrote:
Mike,
All good logical theoretical stuff. Perhaps funding is an impediment to doing
what you suggest re data collection? I seem to recall seeing some rather
gripping video on this – Maybe from NCAR?
However, would it be true to say, that all the models are accurate enough to
predict that the people who live on the Queensland coast in the
Mackay/Townsville belt are in “for a bit of a blow”?
In the real world, the actuality is that these people are preparing for a
*_major disaster!_* Lives will probably be lost, and there will be major
property loss for sure, regardless of the exact track of the epicentre, or the
eventual “category” that is assigned to “Cyclone Debbie” – currently Cat 4.
Who on this forum, remembers Cyclone Yasi, from 2011? .... Just 6 years ago.
If you choose to live in the tropics, you might give some thought to the
cyclone risk, that you _will_ encounter, possibly sooner, rather than later.
Risk vs. reward.
Gary
*From:*Aus-soaring [mailto:[email protected]] *On Behalf
Of *Mike Borgelt
*Sent:* Monday, 27 March 2017 9:51 PM
*To:* Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia.
*Subject:* Re: [Aus-soaring] weather models
Yes, it is clearly a Tropical Cyclone but only 12 hours or so before landfall
the 3 models are still not saying the same things and the maximum wind speeds
for tomorrow morning before landfall are showing only 100km/hour or so.
Could intensify. What is the Sea Surface Temperature under the predicted
track? A first world country would be flying aircraft over the cyclone at high
altitude and putting dropsonde's into it regular time and distance intervals.
or use a HALE (High Altitude Long Endurance) drone to do it. Put a small GPS
chip in each sonde and report the speeds and altitudes and locations as it
parachutes into the ocean. Then we'd have actual DATA. The weather above a
cyclone at high altitude is benign. It is actually a high pressure area
up near the tropopause. Look at the high altitude cirrus blow off on the
satellite pictures, the circulation is anticlockwise in the Southern
Hemisphere. Right now do the movie on the BoM site of the hi res satellite
images. You'll see the low clouds circulating clockwise and the high clouds
going anticlockwise.
I used to do this stuff for a living.
Mike
At 07:35 PM 3/27/2017, you wrote:
Mike,
sitting in the disaster coord centre. have a look at the mackay radar. Classic
high intensity cyclone with the hole in the middle.
Peter Heath
------ Original Message ------
From: "Mike Borgelt" <[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>>
To: "Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia."
<[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>>
Sent: Monday, 27 Mar, 2017 At 7:24 PM
Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] weather models
Ooh look, the models are converging less than 15 hours before 10am tomorrow!
Real measured updates to re-initialise obviously work.
Note however the difference between the models on maximum windspeed and extent
of high wind area. It will be interesting to see the further convergence after
more observational input updates.
Mike
At 03:03 PM 3/27/2017, you wrote:
Those who have a touching faith in weather models might like to look at
www.ventusky.com <http://www.ventusky.com/> and check where the cyclone will
be at 10am tomorrow and what the wind speeds will be around it.
The redo with the other 2 models.
Mike
Borgelt Instruments- design & manufacture of quality soaring instrumentation
since 1978
www.borgeltinstruments.com <http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/>
tel: 07 4635 5784 overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784
mob: 042835 5784 : int+61-42835 5784
P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia
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Borgelt Instruments- design & manufacture of quality soaring instrumentation
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www.borgeltinstruments.com
<http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/>
tel: 07 4635 5784 overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784
mob: 042835 5784 : int+61-42835 5784
P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia
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instrumentation since 1978
/www.borgeltinstruments.com
<http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/>tel: 07 4635 5784 overseas:
int+61-7-4635 5784
mob: 042835 5784 : int+61-42835 5784
P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia
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