So how does the small slice of a continuously updated model for the
air over Brisbane at a given time differ from the actual observations
of the same air at the same time?
And why then do you sometimes see that at a certain location there is
no latest F160 because the balloon didn't fly?
Mike
At 02:45 PM 21/08/2014, you wrote:
On Aug 21, 2014, at 12:21 PM, Mike Borgelt
<[email protected]> wrote:
> The models need updating or initialising with real observations.
According to the BoM in Brisbane, Brisbane at least still launches
balloons for the Observations they publish.
> The bloke I spoke to thought this was also the case for the other
stations on the aerological diagrams page.
> You can do all the modelling you like but weather models drift
from reality over time. A few days is all it takes. Nowadays they
at least still look like real weather charts. They didn't used to
after a while.
> Hence the need to update with real data.
BoM runs a continuous simulation of the global atmosphere which is
continuously refreshed with observational data. Some of the
observational data does indeed come from balloons, but there is also
plenty from other sources, such as instrument packs carried on
airliners, radar systems, data obtained from other national weather
services, and so on.
All of the F160 plots are outputs of the simulation model - i.e.,
they're not produced from raw observational data, they're slices at
a point in time produced by the simulation.
Some of the sites which used to launch balloons are no longer manned
and hence no longer have regular balloon flights, but F160 diagrams
are still produced by the simulation model because it simulates the
entire atmosphere, not just the bits of air above manned weather stations.
- mark
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