Hi Michael! Thanks for this well thought out post, I enjoyed reading it :-)
On 12/06/07, Michael Sparks <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Much of the current world of production is, as I understand it, essentially gambling ... predicated on income coming in *after* production, not before. If as time goes on, essentially the odds of recouping your costs across all your bets (productions) is lower and lower, due to less income (due to copying & distribution no longer being as scarce a resource as it was) then in the end the risk of production becomes to high so production ceases.
I totally agree that the current world of production is, as I understand it, essentially gambling, predicated on income coming in after productio. If as time goes on, essentially the odds of recouping costs across all bets *changes*. It may change up, it may change down. IMO the trend, on a global scale over decades, is for the odds to go up. Ship building companies went bust as railroads came in. But the transport industry has only grown, overall. Closer to this context, the MPAA wanted to kill the VCR, but by 2003 the MPAA's studies revealed that over 20 years, the VCR market had become _double_ the theatrical market. They tripled their income, but they thought that it would cripple them. There will certainly be less income for copying & distribution, since the Internet means that's not scarce any more. But digital technology overall is making production easier and cheaper, so there are new kinds of producers that didn't exist until recently (all those flat screen TVs in all the pubs have footage from where?) and more who are just about to come into existence. Recouping costs from licensing existing works to make new works is a business model being proven by Magnatune.com for music. Perhaps another is to figure out a way for the income to come in *before* production. For example, this has worked for the band Marillion. "the band could not afford to make tour stops in the United States. Luckily, their dedicated US fan base decided to solve the problem by raising some $60,000 themselves online to give to the band to come to the US. The band's loyal fanbase (combined with the Internet) would eventually become vital to the band's existence." - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marillion Production is not going to cease; risk shifts around, business models change, and the kinds of works that are produced, and their numbers, will change. Risk of production for some things will becomes too high and production of those things will ceases, the grand sail powered ships.
At the end of the day, that's the reason why people are hunting round for new scarce resources (eg DRM), where business models can exist to support the creation of stories we all like to see. Some of these are valid and acceptable to an audience, and some aren't. I
It appears widely understood that DRM is not acceptable to the audience. Except inside the BBC, alas. -- Regards, Dave - Sent via the backstage.bbc.co.uk discussion group. To unsubscribe, please visit http://backstage.bbc.co.uk/archives/2005/01/mailing_list.html. Unofficial list archive: http://www.mail-archive.com/backstage@lists.bbc.co.uk/
