Yep.
http://www.ssti.us/2015/09/traffic-deaths-surge-as-americans-return-to-the-roads/
Traffic deaths surge as Americans return to the roads
Posted on September 8th, 2015 in NewsTags: safety, VMTBy Chris McCahillU.S.
traffic deaths increased by 14 percent in the first half of 2015 compared to
the first half of 2014, to nearly 19,000 deaths through June, according to the
National Safety Council. If the trend holds, this year will be the deadliest
for road users since 2007.At the same time, traffic volume as measured by
vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) also reached its highest six-month level since
2007—roughly 1.54 trillion miles in the first half of the year—according to
theFederal Highway Administration.The NSC connects the two trends, singling out
the growth in VMT as a likely cause of the increase in deaths. However, NSC
President Deborah A.P. Hersman also pointed out that the increase in driving is
much smaller than the rise in traffic deaths and injuries. Hersman speculates
that other factors, such as higher speed limits in some states and distracted
driving due to mobile phone use, may be to blame as well.Yet viewed over a
period of 20 years, the association between deaths and VMT appears to be
strong, albeit not at a 1-to-1 rate. Traffic safety appears to be highly
sensitive to changes in the amount of vehicle travel taking place. As shown in
Figure 1, traffic deaths dropped by more than 20 percent between 2007 and 2011,
when VMT decreased by around 3 percent. The projected growth of each in 2015
shows a remarkably similar pattern, with both variables increasing but the
death toll growing at a faster rate than VMT.Figure 1. VMT and traffic deaths
in the United States. Data sources: FHWA, NHTSA and NCS.Why would a small
change in VMT be related to a big change in deaths? One reason could be that
discretionary travel likely plays a key role in VMT fluctuations. Discretionary
trips often cover long distances on unfamiliar roads or they are made at night
and on weekends, when serious crashes occur most often.That is only one theory.
If you have a thought on this relationship, please share it. If we receive good
ideas we will summarize them in a subsequent post.Whatever the cause, these
findings suggest that U.S. traffic fatality rates—the number of deaths per
million miles driven—are not following a constant downward trajectory, but
instead are related to the amount of travel taking place. As shown in Figure 2,
fatality rates were decreasing relatively gradually through 2007, when they
dropped sharply, at the same time that VMT fell. Now with VMT growing in 2015,
those past safety gains are also receding.Figure 2. VMT and traffic fatality
rates in the United States. Data sources: FHWA, NHTSA and NCS.Several states,
including California, Massachusetts, and Washington, have policies in place
aimed at reducing VMT. Those policies are typically framed as solutions for
congestion and/or greenhouse gas emissions. But stakeholders should be aware
that VMT reduction also appears to be a powerful way to reduce injuries and
save lives.Chris McCahill is a Senior Associate at SSTI.
From: Jym Dyer via Bikies <[email protected]>
To: Bikies <[email protected]>
Sent: Tuesday, October 13, 2015 11:54 AM
Subject: Re: [Bikies] Pedestrians & bikes getting hit by cars is increasing
=v= I wonder how much this reflects national trends. (I can
only wonder at this point, though, since national statistics
take a little while to be compiled and published.)
=v= Nationwide, we've gone through some years where total
VMT has been reduced, and right along with that, a dramatic
reduction in deaths and injuries from cars. More recently,
though, and OPEC reduction in the price of oil has resulted
in a sharp increase in VMT, and I would expect crashes to
follow accordingly.
<_Jym_>
P.S.: There have already been reports of an increase in
purchases of SUVs and other gas-guzzlers. One segment of
the market is jaw-droppingly short-sighted about things.
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