Erik:
Here in the government, poll watching seems to be a very popular pasttime.
If it is found on the Internet, we've probably checked it out in our
office! ;-)
There are a lot of interesting factors with these polls. For example, the
CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll has been incredible volatile - almost like
sunspots - because they push "undecided" voters much harder than others to
make a choice. Thus, always check out the size of the undecided number,
see if it is +10% or @5%.
The ABC News/Washington Post poll is an interesting lesson in likely
voters. Nobody knows what a "likely voter" is, so the two of them share
the same raw data and apply different "likely voter" models to the same
data, with sometimes differing results.
This Rasmussen guy is an interesting character. Ever notice that his
website has the most detailed state-by-state information? Part of that is
his advantage of using calling robots, a tactic dismissed as being
unscientific by some experts (you are biasing the poll against people who
don't talk to phone robots, and biasing in favor of the first person to
answer a telephone in a household.) Part of the difference though is his
philosophy. Check out:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A11198-2000Oct25.html
Rasmussen seems to consistently give a slighter edge to Bush than most
other polls for some reason.
Another poll that has slightly favored Bush the whole way through is the
Voter.com/Battleground poll.
On the other end is the Newsweek poll, which seemed to be such an outlier
in favor of Gore earlier this year, that they switched from using
registered voters to likely voters.
The biggest mystery, however, is Zogby. As the article noted, Zogby grew
famous among Republican circles for correctly predicting that Dole would
finish with 41% of the vote. He even frankly admits that he believes all
other polls have a Democratic bias. Yet, all year he has consistently
been an outlier in favor of Gore. Go figure.
Anyhow, averaging the results of all available polls, my analysts and I
believe that Bush has a 3-4% lead, and an edge in the electoral college
that should break his way.
JDG
_______________________________________________
John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED] - ICQ #3527685
"Now is not the Time for Third Chances,
It is a Time for New Beginnings."
- George W. Bush 8/3/00
******************VOTE BUSH / CHENEY 2000 *******************
