At 08:25 AM 11/14/00 -0800, Darryl wrote:
>But it seems that we might have a compromise. The entire state might
>be recounted by hand. The news is saying that Gore will abide by the
>recount (with no lawsuits) if Bush will agree. This seems the only
>way. Recount the entire state, and the candidate who had the most
>votes cast for him will win.
Right or wrong, I think here is the rub for the Bushies:
I have been told that punch card systems were used primarily in Democratic
counties. Most Republican counties tended to use "Optiscan" technology
(which I believe is the filling in of bubbles with a felt tip pen.) This
same source reported that Optiscan technology recorded 99% of balltos,
whereas the punch card machines only counted 97% of ballots. Thus, in all
likelihood, a hand recount which counts more ballots that the machines
missed, will in all likelihood record a much greater number of votes for
Gore. I have not seen confirmation of this, and would love to find someone
who could verify this information.
This is why the Bush camp has primarily argued against hand counts *in
principle*, instead of just the argument that hand counts are only
occurring in Democratic counties. There really isn't much reason to
believe that a hand count in the Republican counties using "Optiscan"
technology would have any effect on the result.
Thus, the election has, and must, come down to the judges. By my
estimation, an absolute dream scenario for Bush would be to add a 3,300
vote margin through the absentees. This is unlikely, however, and I
consider a more realistic estimate to be 1,000 vote margin added.
A hand recount, based on the latest numbers from Palm Beach and Dade
counties, I suspect will add 2,000-6,000 votes to Gore's total.
In other words, any legal decision which does not count the hand recounts
elects George Bush as President. Any legal decision which allows the hand
recounts likely elects Gore as President. What a situation.
JDG
_______________________________________________
John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED] - ICQ #3527685
"Now is not the Time for Third Chances,
It is a Time for New Beginnings."
- George W. Bush 8/3/00
******************VOTE BUSH / CHENEY 2000 *******************
