> From: "Gautam Mukunda" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Does anyone have any good, solid data on how "early
> returns" effects voters?
> Maybe I'm just a-typical, but I doubt how florida voted
> would've effected my
> voting in washington state..
>
> It just seems like this long-held belief, but I've never
> heard a good
> reasoning for it
>
> -j-
I can't give you a hard-edged empirical analysis of it off the top of
my head, but I know that political scientists have looked at the
phenomenon and concluded that it does exist. Essentially, people like
to vote for a winner. A lot. When the networks called FL for Gore so
early, they made it seem almost impossible that Bush could win the
election and, in fact, the tone of their coverage was quite funereal
with regards to the Bush campaign until they pulled the state back.
At that point, two things happened. First, some (unknown, but
probably significant) number of voters who were going to vote for Bush
decided not to bother, and so didn't go to the polls. A further
number of voters who _would_ have voted for Bush decided (consciously
or unconsciously) to back Gore instead. Finally, some number of Gore
voters who would not normally have bothered to go vote got more
enthusiastic about Gore and went to the polls to vote for him. Put
them all together, and the effect was probably significant, although
how significant I at least cannot say. It may be a topic susceptible
to analysis using VNS data, I just don't feel like doing it at the
moment.
********************Gautam "Ulysses" Mukunda**********************
* Harvard College Class of '01 *He either fears his fate too much*
* www.fas.harvard.edu/~mukunda * Or his deserts are small, *
* [EMAIL PROTECTED] *Who dares not put it to the touch*
* "Freedom is not Free" * To win or lose it all. *
******************************************************************
