Chad Cooper schreef:
> Ahem...
> Since I work for the largest Truck company in the world, which sells the
> most trucks in the US and in Europe (Daimler/Chrysler/MB/Freightliner), I
> can say that business is very bad right now. Large fleets can afford to NOT
> run trucks when gas prices are high, but the indies cannot. They have
> families to feed. Right now the default rate (At least in the US) for indies
> is so high, that loans on trucks are at at least 25% interest (compare that
> to your own car loan but add 100K 125,000$ * .25=31,000$/yr). A truck can do
> a million miles (Sorry.. Alberto) in a year. Trucks measure mileage in terms
> of a fraction, typically 1.1-1.7 MPG (Sorry.. Alberto). If the Indie gets
> 1.5 MPG, and he travels 500,000 Miles per year, thats 333,333 gallons a
> year. If the price of gas goes up two cents, that 66,000$ US extra costs a
> year. Taxes do put hard working individuals out of business, and it can
> happen real fast.
> We have see a massive glut of used trucks on the market. That, along with
> Fleets not running trucks, which means they do not need new trucks, we are
> in a massive slump.
>
> So what does this do to Daimler/Chrysler/MB/Freightliner. Freightliner made
> 30 Bil$ in 2000. We expect to lose a Billion this year.
>
> So for every 2 cents that is raised in new taxes in fuel, the Gov't can
> expect 66,000$ extra from Joe Trucker. If he defaults on his loan, he goes
> on welfare or state assistance, his truck is repo'ed and thousands of
> dollars lost from the resale, Freightliner does not sell a new truck, due to
> the used truck being back in the market unsold and not in use. Trucks are
> used for only a few years. If a truck sits in a lot for a year, this
> impacts us worse.
> Costs for shipping increase, with there being less indies willing to carry,
> and fleets holding back. This affects everyone! Your costs go up for
> everything.
>
> Our profit margins are extremely slim, about 2-5%, or about 5,000$ per
> 150,000$ sold. We sell in volume to make our money. I had a friend in the
> gasoline station business, and he typically made .5-1 cent per gallon.
>
> Trickle-down economics come into play extensively in the Transportation
> industry. Gas taxes are really bad for any country.
>
> Compare this government tax press release(
> http://www.dot.gov/affairs/1996/fhw2196.htm ) in 1996 regarding reducing the
> Tax Burden reporting on the trucking industry. From this point on to about
> mid 2000, was the most prosperous time for Freightliner. The president of
> Freightliner believes that the truck manufacturing industry is a reliable
> indicator for the common health of the national economy. He believes that we
> see downturns first, and are the first to recover. Is it any coincidence
> that as soon as the country (US) sees bountiful tax revenues, that the
> economy starts to tank. The dot-coms cannot be blamed for the downturn. You
> could however speculate that a high tax revenue has a negative impact to the
> economy, despite the government regulation that is supposed to bolster trade
> (like fixing highways).
>
> As far as the statement about getting part of the tax refunds back is true,
> but not as much as you would think
> http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/////ohim/hs98/tables/mf2.pdf. Only .42% (That's less
> than 1%) was refunded from taxable gas.
This seems to be very similar to the situation in bulk chemistry. If oil prices
go up only marginally that industry and all who depend on it are in deep trouble
fast.
Sonja
