At 09:43 PM 7/27/01 -0700 Marc Erickson wrote:
>: Because Economists are scientists, and
>
>Cmon, John. If economics was a science, its practioners' predictions would
>be right more often than 50% of the time. As it is now, the ordinary person
>reads an economist's forecasts and says, "That's nice. Who won the ball
>games yesterday?"
Ahh..... now we are getting somewhere. Thank you for at least proferring
an approximation of a definition of "science".
Unfortunately, your definition does not hold water.
After all, why 50%? Does making a correct prediction 49% of the time make
you a non-scientist? Once I get my PhD, is there a "prediction monitor"
who certifies me as a "scientist" once 50% of my predictions are proved
accurate? What happens if I drop below 50%?
Another problem is that many people who are generally accepted as
"scientists" are famous for the predictions that they got *wrong.* For
instance, Michelson and Morely conducted one of the most famous Physics
experiments ever, thanks to the completely erroneous prediction of the
existence of an "ether" in space. It would seem peculiar, then, to simply
define science as making predictions that are "right." (Besides, I'd have
to imagine that thanks to quantum mechanics, physics is probably littered
with a whole lot more wrong predictions to boot.....)
Additionally, I happen to have predicted the outcome of every National
Football League game since 1988. In each and every year, however, I have
correctly predicted the outcome of well more than 50% of the games. Does
this make me a football scientist?
Finally, what about scientists that aren't involved in making predictions?
Do you consider most Biologists to be scientists? How about
taxonomists? Are Geologists scientists? Paleontologists? How do you
measure their predictions?
If people want to disparage Economics as not being a "science", I think you
should at least be able to come up with a reasonable definition of
"science" to back up your point. If not, then it just sounds like you all
are saying that "Science is everything that is not Economics" - and that is
just not going to cut it.
In the meantime, I will continue to support my definition of science being
the application of the scientific method to gain information about the
world as the best starting point for defining science.
JDG
__________________________________________________________
John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED] - ICQ #3527685
We are products of the same history, reaching from Jerusalem and
Athens to Warsaw and Washington. We share more than an alliance.
We share a civilization. - George W. Bush, Warsaw, 06/15/01
