Well, I'm starting to generate at least some response, so I'm happy. And also encouraged. Muhahahahahahahaha!
Oh yes, one more note - I'm pretty much doing these off the top of my head - almost no research, in other words (so there, Dan! :-) which means I'm probably going to get a few player names and such wrong. Sorry about that. Some general comments again. There is more talent - particularly on the farm - in the AL West than there is in any other division bar none. I actually don't even think it's particularly close - maybe the NL Central, but they have two teams with great systems, not three, as the AL West does. I'm going to pick a rank order, but it's purely fictional. The difference between Seattle and Oakland is, in my opinion, a coin flip. It will probably be determined by random factors - injuries, midseason trades (one area that does favor Seattle because of its greater fiscal resources) and a healthy dose of pure luck. So my Seattle/Oakland ranking is virtually a flip of the coin - it could go the other way easily and, more than that, it doesn't matter. Whichever one _doesn't_ win the division is going to cruise to the Wildcard. That being said, here we go. Seattle - I have some reasons for picking Seattle. First, its margin of victory last year was substantial - enough that even a significant regression (expected, from such an extraordinary peak) should still leave it with some margin for error. I'd be surprised if they make 100 wins, but only a little, and 95+ seems almost certain (in the toughest division in baseball, don't forget) and that should probably be enough. Second, there's a dirty little secret about Seattle with which you can surprise your friends and bewilder your enemies - Seattle's 116 wins is normally thought of as the product of a group of career seasons. To some extent this is true, but not completely. Edgar Martinez was better in 2000, for example. He is getting older, so decline is expected, but Barry Bonds has just convincingly demonstrated that it's not a _requirement_ of age. Bret Boone will presumably decline, but Sammy Sosa has shown what happens when a physically talented player learns the strike zone, and it's not impossible that Boone is an example of that. Anyone from the Seattle area have any quotes or anything to support/weaken that argument? There was one key player on the Mariners, however, who had a bad year. Ichiro. I kid you not. According to Baseball Prospectus's recent work, the Major League Equivalent for the Japanese leagues is in excess of .9 - perhaps as high as .94. That means they're probably better than 90% as good as the Major Leagues. If you work out Ichiro's performance as compared to his time in Japan, his power has dropped substantially. I expect that to change. Power is a _very_ stable statistic. If I had to guess, his batting average will decrease somewhat while his peripheral (but more important) stats like OBP and SLG might well improve. He's still 28 - within a ballplayer's peak years, and this year he won't have to deal with adjustment shock. You have to mate that with Seattle's _outstanding_ farm system. Ryan Anderson, assuming he bounces back from shoulder surgery, is the best lefthanded pitching prospect in baseball, and he's not alone. AAA Tacoma's pitching rotation is better than that of at least a third of Major League teams. Chris Snelling (from Australia!) is also a superb outfield prospect. Finally, Pat Gillick, the best non-Beane GM in baseball, has done exactly what he should in the offseason. Last year's team had significant weaknesses - 3B and LF most importantly, but catcher as well. Jeff Cirillo is a significant upgrade over David Bell, Ben Davis will be batter than Dan Wilson, and a Ruben Sierra/Mark McLemore platoon can't possibly be _worse_ than Al Martin and Stan Javier. One sign of concern, though. Despite what everyone in baseball will tell you, the Mariners _did not_ win with pitching last year. Safeco is the best pitcher's park in baseball, even including Dodger Stadium (I think), and this vastly improves the ERA of its pitchers and suppresses its hitter performance. Seattle won last year with hitting, and their pitching didn't get in the way. Gillick has done some good things with Seattle's hitting, but seems to be counting on the farm system for the pitching. Assuming Ryan Anderson and Gil Meche are okay, that's a good bet - but young pitching will break your heart, over and over and over again. So if I were a Seattle fan, I would be slightly concerned about Seattle pitching - that and the fact that Carlos Guillen can't hit. I can only imagine how well the Mariners would have done last year if AROD had stayed at shortstop. 122-124 wins is probably not out of the question. Actually, if anyone's interested, I think I could figure that out mathematically - does anyone want me to? They should have had him, actually - the Mariners were stupid to play him at 19, when even he couldn't do too well in the Majors, and thus advance his free agency clock by a full year for no return whatsoever. But that's another story. At any rate - this team will be close to 100 wins. 95+ easily, assuming no catastrophic injuries. Picking a team you expect to win close to 100 games for anything but a division win is a bad idea, and I'm not going to do it. Oakland - Billy Beane is a genius. I can't emphasize that enough. He did just lose Jason Giambi, true - but I don't think that was an accident. For any team but the Yankees, he wasn't worth the money. Yes, he's a superb hitter. He also has a body type and hitting profile a _lot_ like Frank Thomas and Mo Vaughn. Both of whom are only a few years older than he is. And both of whom have spent two of the last three seasons not swinging a bat because of various injuries. _Furthermore_, Beane replaced him with Carlos Pena - the best hitting prospect in the Majors. Over the length of Giambi's contract, Pena will be better, period. Plus he will probably cost the Athletics somewhere in the $10M range, and he's their property for five years. Tejada, Long, Chavez, Jeremy Giambi, and Ramon Hernandez are young enough to improve, while Jermaine Dye seemed to benefit greatly from Oakland's style of play. That's _6_ of nine players who will get better, and 1 who will drop. I don't quite understand why Beane chose to trade for Koch - "proven closers" are the single most overrated commodity in the game of baseball (Mariano Rivera excepted) but he will probably be no worse than Isringhausen. Esteban German may be the best 2B prospect in baseball, and he just might be able to fill in for Frankie Menechino and Randy Velarde if they get into trouble. I'm a little concerned by their rotation - young pitching, again. But the A's (unlike the O's, for example) are very smart and have been very careful about overworking their rotation, so I have more faith in their young pitching than I do in most. Plus they have a fair number of prospects, so if someone gets in trouble they might be able to fill in the gaps. Very little in pitching, though, so they'd have to do it with trades. If they can, they probably should. Flags fly forever - when you've got a shot at a pennant, take it. I do think their middle relief will decline some, although middle relief talent is eminently replaceable and Beane, better than any other GM, knows where to find it. Still, picking a team that won 102 games last year to do it again seems like a bad bet, on the whole (regression to the mean is very powerful indeed, after all) so I'm picking them for the Wild Card, not the Division. Texas - A superb offense and atrocious pitching. That was Texas last year, and that will be Texas this year. Forever and ever, world without end, Amen. Apparently. Even their _minor league_ system has superb hitting and poor pitching. Texas may be the only team in baseball that could afford to give up Carlos Pena. Mark Teixeira might be the best college hitter of all time - I'm guessing they'll switch him to 1st to replace Pena. Hank Blalock is the best 3B prospect not named Sean Burroughs in baseball. Kevin Mench is a pretty decent outfielder too, if he recovers from his wrist injury. The ML offense isn't too bad either. Rafael Palmeiro - still a superb 1B. Juan Gonzalez - two time MVP (although he deserved neither and is one of the most overrated players in baseball, he's still pretty good). Ivan Rodriguez - the second best catcher in baseball, although I'd trade him for pitching if I were the Rangers. Frank Catalonotto is a pretty good 2B, and Gabe Kapler is fine in LF as well. I am worried about Rusty Greer, who seems to be getting old very quickly. And there's this guy at shortstop - they say he's pretty good. Carl Everett, however, apart from being clubhouse poison, a total fruit loop, and clearly in need of psychological treatment, is also a player in quick decline - he hasn't been good since the first half of 2000. This was a big mistake on the part of the Rangers. I won't even go into the insanity of putting him and Rocker in the same clubhouse. The Rangers do have one big problem, though. Doug Melvin. In Cleveland, Melvin traded away superb prospects for the most replaceable thing in baseball - middle relief - not once but over and over again. Sean Casey. Brian Giles. Richie Sexson. The real danger is that he'll do it again - trading Teixeira for middle relief would be a crime against baseball, for example. He did do okay with Pena - trading a future All-Star is usually a bad move, but when he's blocked at his position, you have other prospects who might well replace him, and you get back Mario Ramos, a very good lefthanded prospect, it's probably a gamble worth taking. Chan Ho Park will not, I think, be a success - outside of Dodger Stadium he was a below League average pitcher, and Texas Field is a _hitter's_ park. He's in trouble. Texas is one of the more intriguing teams in baseball. Loads of talent, but in a vicious division, it's unbalanced talent - lots of hitting but no pitching. Melvin has got to convert his hitting talent into pitching without wasting it, as he did in Cleveland. He had a similar task in Cleveland and failed. Texas fans are hoping he has learned. Anaheim - This team is better than people give it credit for, actually. Their basic problem is that they can't hit, at all. Darren Erstad has had one good year - can we stop talking about how great he is just because he played college football? In Troy Glaus they have one of the best young players in baseball - he won the AL Home Run title last year, in probably the quietest such win in memory. They have, in Eckstein and Kennedy, a good young middle infield. But Garret Anderson might be the most overrated player in baseball - he'd put up a higher OBP if he went to the plate without a bat, I do believe. Tim Salmon seems to be getting old fast. Erstad just isnt' that good. They appear to not have a first baseman - they're still suffering from the incredibly dumb Mo Vaughn signing - and their ownership may or may not, depending on the rumor of the day, be in disarray. This is a problem. In any other division they might at least be competitive, but between Seattle and Oakland I think they're stuck with roadkill status for a while. Gautam
