----- Original Message -----
From: "Alberto Monteiro" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "Brin-L" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Monday, February 25, 2002 6:55 PM
Subject: Re: The Shooting Room Paradox


>
> Richard Baker wrote:
> >
> >> Your "Paradox" is really a play on words, or an ill-defined question.
> >
> >Does anyone else have similar problems that may be true paradoxes?
> >
> Paradoxes _are_ play on words, on play on a badly defined set
> of axioms. Most of them come with the careless use of words such
> as "all", "none", etc.

I have a more positive view of paradoxes than I see you indicating.  Often
paradoxes can be used as a tool for developing a better way of looking at
things; or as a means of clarifying thought.  Lets look at this case.  It
would seem, to a casual observer the answer to the questions:

You are going in the room, what are your odds of surviving?

and

You know your friend has gone in the room, and that's all you know: what are
the odds that your friend survived?

are the same, that they are the same question.

But, in reality, they are very different questions.  The answer to the first
is 35/36ths.  The answer to the second is approximately 1/9.  The reason for
this is that the knowledge of when the affected party went into the room is
different in the two situations.

This has tremendous applications in the use of science in industry.  IMHO,
the most important thing in solving a problem is asking the right question.
Oftentimes the wrong solution is tried because the engineering fix addresses
the wrong question.

Dan M.

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